Breaking down Yankees’ path to playoffs as odds dwindle

NEW YORK — When a reporter asked Jake Bauers late Friday night if the Yankees’ loss to the Astros was a missed opportunity, a failure to make up some ground in the standings, the first baseman fired back with a no-brainer.

“I think any game you lose is a missed opportunity,” Bauers said.

Let’s take that one step further.

Every game the Yankees lose at this point in the season is another step closer to missing the playoffs.

With 52 games remaining, a total of eight weeks on the calendar, FanGraphs gives the Yankees an 18.6 percent chance of making the playoffs. Following Friday’s loss, Baseball-Reference gave the Yankees just an 11.8 percent shot to earn a ticket to the dance.

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This is a team that’s currently sitting 3 ½ games out of the third and final Wild Card spot in the American League, hovering four games above .500 with a 57-53 record. They’ve been out of the playoff picture for almost two months now, dating back to July 8.

If you’re thinking that 3 ½ games isn’t a huge margin, you’re right. That’s the “striking distance” that general manager Brian Cashman referred to earlier this week when he justified keeping the team together at the trade deadline. Somehow, Cashman simultaneously held back from acquiring any big-league pieces other than a middle reliever, but that’s another conversation that we’ve already had.

The gap may be just 3 ½ games, but the Yankees statistically face more of an uphill climb than you may realize.

Look at it this way. The Blue Jays (61-50) are currently in the third Wild Card position as of Saturday morning. Their record puts them on pace to win 89 games this season. Round that up to 90. That’s the number the Yankees are realistically chasing in the win column just to sneak into the postseason.

That means the Yankees would need to post a 33-19 record or better over their next 52 games.

Watching this club over the last few months, do you think they can go on a sustained run like that, playing 14 games over .500? Aaron Judge’s return should help — the Yankees are 33-23 in games where Judge has played — but that’s still a tall order.

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The Yankees’ strength of schedule the rest of the way is a hurdle as well. Only 19 of their remaining games come against teams with a record below .500. The rest are against clubs competing to make the postseason, each carrying better odds than the Yanks. Trips to Miami, Atlanta, Houston, Tampa Bay, Toronto and Boston will all be a challenge.

Don’t forget to consider just how many teams the Yankees are competing with here. After the clubs that are already in Wild Card position — the Rays (67-45), Astros (63-48) and Blue Jays — the Mariners (58-52) and Red Sox (57-52) are above the Yankees in the standings. The Angels (56-55) are five games back of the third Wild Card spot. Their track record suggests that they’ll fizzle out and watch October festivites from home, but can we truly rule out Shohei Ohtani’s squad after they went all-in at the trade deadline (and have Mike Trout on the mend)?

Barring collapses over these next two months, the division-leading Orioles (68-42) and Rangers (64-46), along with the Rays and Astros, are virtual locks to make the postseason. FanGraphs gives each of those teams more than an 86 percent chance to secure a playoff bid.

Therefore, the Yankees are one of five teams competing for that final Wild Card spot.

Their margin for error has never been smaller.