Yankees vs. Twins odds, predictions and pitching matchups
The New York Yankees start a season-long 10-game homestand with a four game set against the Minnesota Twins starting on Thursday night at 7:05 p.m. at Yankee Stadium.
New York went 4-2 on its first road trip of the year that included its best performance so far with a 11-2 victory over the Cleveland Guardians on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the Twins are off to a decent 8-4 start with series wins against the Royals, Astros and White Sox.
Here's my picks and predictions for this American League tilt with odds powered by Tipico Sportsbook.
Thursday, 7:05 p.m.: Jhony Brito (2-0, 0.90 ERA) vs. Joe Ryan (2-0, 3.75 ERA)
Brito has gotten off to an incredible start in his rookie season. The 25-year-old has won both starts and surrendered just one earned run that came in his last outing in a 4-1 victory over the Baltimore Orioles. His second appearance was definitely tougher than his first as he threw only 92 pitches in five innings after just 76 pitches thrown in his MLB debut on Apr. 2.
Speaking of good starts, the same could be said about Ryan. While he surrendered four runs in six innings, Ryan struck out 10+ batters for the first time since his rookie season on Sept. 22, 2021. Similar to Brito, the 26-year-old right-hander had an easier outing in his first game of 2023 where he conceded just three hits and one earned run in six frames in a 7-4 victory over the Kansas City Royals.
Both of these young pitchers are due for some type of regression soon but I believe we get a bit of a pitchers' duel with Ryan having the slight edge on his home mound as Minnesota wins the series opener.
Place a bet on the Twins as an underdog on the moneyline (+130), to cover the +1.5 run line (-155) and the under 8.5 total runs scored at -110 on Tipico Sportsbook.
Prediction: Twins 4, Yankees 2
Friday, 7:05 p.m.: Nestor Cortes (2-0, 2.61 ERA) vs. Tyler Mahle (1-1, 4.09 ERA)
Just like he did in his breakout season in 2022, Cortes is off to a stellar start in 2023. Nasty Nestor has won both starts, surrendered two or fewer runs and gone at least five innings in each of those outings. His strikeout numbers are slightly down from last year but I wouldn't be too concerned about the 28-year-old southpaw. In four appearances, Cortes had a combined eight strikeouts in two starts and 20 in the other two games last April.
After a great performance against the Miami Marlins on Apr. 3, Mahle struggled against the Houston Astros. The 28-year-old gave up four runs on eight hits in a 5-1 loss on Apr. 9. Mahle has never pitched against New York but was 2-5 with a 4.71 ERA and an opponents batting average (OBA) .249 at home in 2022.
This is the biggest pitching mismatch of this series and I'd bet on the Yankees to bounce back and win the second game of this series.
Prediction: Yankees 5, Twins 3
Saturday, 1:05 p.m.: Domingo German (0-1, 5.87 ERA) vs. Kenta Maeda (0-2, 4.09 ERA)
This matchup features two pitchers who have gotten off to rough starts in 2023. German had all types of issues in his most recent start with five walks and 87 pitches in only three innings of work. This comes after the 30-year-old recorded eight strikeouts but four earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in a 4-1 loss to the Phillies on April 4.
On the other side is Maeda. He's not too far off from German as he had more success (nine strikeouts, one earned run and three hits in five innings) in his first start than his previous outing (four runs on eight hits in six innings). Maeda did not pitch in 2022 but struggled in his one start against the Yankees in 2021 where the 35-year-old only went 4 1/3 innings and allowed five runs on four hits.
This should be the highest scoring matchup of this series and give advantage to the Twins to get the job done late in the game or extra innings.
Prediction: Twins 8, Yankees 7
Sunday, 1:35 p.m.: Gerrit Cole (3-0, 1.40 ERA) vs. Pablo Lopez (1-0, 1.35 ERA)
The series finale should be the best pitching matchup by far. Cole didn't have his best stuff last time out but still earned his third straight victory to start the season for the first time since 2020. The right-hander has conceded only three earned runs and a 22:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 19 1/3 innings. Last year, Cole had his up-and-downs against the Twins. While he struckout 14 and earned his 11th of the victory of the season in New York, the 32-year-old pitched only 2 1/3 innings and surrendered a season-high seven runs and a whopping five home runs in the Yankees 10-7 win.
Lopez has shined in his first year with the Twins after being traded to Minnesota in the offseason. The 27-year-old has given up two or fewer runs and struck out at least eight batters in all three starts this season. Lopez had a season-high 10 strikeouts but didn't earn a decision in a 4-3 victory over the White Sox on April 11.
This will be a game dominated by two aces on Sunday afternoon and I believe the Yankees squeak out the victory as they split the four-game series versus the Twins.
