Your Wednesday Kickoff: Which MLS teams are over and underperforming their xGoals?
CF Montréal, Toronto to meet in Canadian Championship quarters
CF Montréal scored twice in a five-minute span in the first half to defeat Vaughan SC, 2-0, in the preliminary round of the 2023 Canadian Championship at Stade Saputo Tuesday night. The result ensures an all-MLS meeting in the quarterfinals with Toronto FC hosting Montréal in the latest edition of the Canadian Classique.
Concacaf’s biggest rivalry returns Wednesday evening (10 pm ET) when the US men’s national team host Mexico in the inaugural Allstate Continental Clásico, a new friendly series against teams from North, Central or South America.
Ok, yep, I couldn’t help myself. I should probably wait two more weeks before I start trying to take away too much from underlying numbers like expected goals. But, like, here’s the thing. I’m not sure anyone outside of St. Louis wants to read another “Has anyone noticed St. Louis is winning lots of games???” newsletter. It’s a non-CCL Wednesday; no one needs me to comment on anything USMNT related ever, and I just really like talking about this stuff because it’s about as objective as we can get with analysis in this sport, even if it’s imperfect.
Remember, when we talk about expected goals (xG), we’re talking about the quality and quantity of the chances a team creates or allows. If I said “Team A is more likely to perform better than Team B because Team A creates better chances and allows fewer chances” you’d say “Well, yeah, duh.” When we use xG, it’s the same statement. If Team A’s expected goal differential is 7.10 and Team B’s expected goal differential is -2.04, all I’m saying is that Team A (Actually LAFC) creates more and better chances than their opponents while Team B (Actually Sporting KC) does not. Generally, teams will eventually earn results close to how their chance creation numbers suggest they should. Unless they’re Austin and defy the odds for an entire season. Which hey, speaking of…
Ok, I’m not saying they’re 2022 Austin. That kind of overperformance relative to their actual chance creation across an entire season feels like it might be historic for a long time. However, I guess now is the time to note that St. Louis are outperforming their expected goals numbers by an even larger amount per game than last year’s Austin side?
In fact, per American Soccer Analysis, St. Louis’ actual goal differential so far is more than one goal better each game than their expected goal differential. That’s the highest mark in the league and probably not sustainable. The good news is, we’re dealing with a very small sample size here. And lucking into a few routs doesn’t mean you’ll stop getting points, it might just mean games are eventually a little closer.
Although, I guess we should point out the differential between St. Louis’ actual points and their “expected points” – basically what the average results of their chance creation suggest their record should be – is the biggest gap in the league right now. Yes, bigger than last year’s record-setting Austin side.
Don’t expect St. Louis to fall off the planet or anything. This is a good team. But maybe don’t pencil them in as Supporters' Shield winners.
The Audi MLS Cup Playoffs will be fun though.
Teams do spiral and issues do compound and bad vibes do make everything worse. However, maybe don’t expect SKC and LA to stick around the very bottom of the Western Conference for the entire year. Both are underperforming their expected points totals by practically the same league-best (worst?) six-point amount. All things being equal relative to their chances created, and they probably have a win or two under their belt instead of…whatever this is.
SKC at the very least should have more than two goals. I mean, they’re generally taking absolutely terrible shots over and over again, but you’d think they’d at least have more than two.
Look, don’t expect them to come good all of the sudden and start making things interesting in the West. They don’t appear to be good soccer teams. Eye tests are data points too. But maybe consider both sides are dealing with some bad breaks that are making things seem spectacularly dire instead of just bad. Ya…..yay?
Neither has had a spectacular start. However, their expected point totals have Vancouver at the third-highest mark in the league and New York at the fifth-highest mark. That’s easier to grasp with a 'Caps team that blew some early leads late and has generally played good ball. But the Red Bulls’ system keeps them in the playoffs year after year after year for a reason. Eventually, the chances their press generates (and limits for their opponents) level out and they start pulling out wins.
I’ll be honest, there weren’t really a ton of surprises here beyond what I’ve already listed. The bottom of the list includes Inter Miami, CF Montréal, Portland, Charlotte and Austin. Based on what you already know, you probably could have guessed that. I mean, you’d probably be bummed to see Houston near the bottom like I was, but it’s not like anyone thought they could win the Shield or anything. They’re just mostly ok and that’s enough to consider progress.
The rest of the league is kind of shaking out how you’d think. At least for now.
New England Revolution sign veteran defender Sweat: The New England Revolution have bolstered their fullback depth, announcing Tuesday they've signed Ben Sweat through the 2023 season with a club option for 2024. Sweat will occupy a supplemental roster slot. The eight-year MLS veteran most recently featured for Sporting Kansas City, where he made 25 appearances (22 starts) after joining the club prior to the 2022 season. He logged three assists over that span before he was waived by the Western Conference side in early April. The 31-year-old will provide a well-tested option behind first-choice starters DeJuan Jones and Brandon Bye.
Good luck out there. Get a proper megaladon guy. For emergencies.
