2023 Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends: Cheltenham Festival Stats

Sports Lens

16 March 2023

2023 Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends: Cheltenham Festival Stats

Use our 2023 Cheltenham Gold Cup trends to help you find the winner of Friday’s huge Festival race, where the Willie Mullins-trained Galopin Des Champs currently heads the betting. But how have the favourites fared in recent years? We’ve got all the key Cheltenham stats to guide you through the meeting’s showcase race.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends to Help You Find the Winners

The Cheltenham Fesitval has 28 races over the four days, but the showcase event each year is always the Gold Cup, run on Friday. It’s the race all the top jump jockeys and trainers want on their CV’s – so, which horse which horse, stable and rider will be on the Gold Cup hall-of-fame this year?

The good news, is there are many decent Cheltenham Gold Cup trends below to help whittle down the 13 runners. Use these to help find the best profile of past winners as this Blue Riband event has a habit of repeating itself.

It’s the Willie Mullins-trained Galopin Des Champs that heads the Gold Cup Cheltenham odds going into the race – but does he tick the main Gold Cup trends?

Let’s look at some of the main Cheltenham stats in a big more detail.

ALL Of The Last 19 Gold Cup Winners Were Aged 9 or Younger

First up is the age. Okay, most of the Gold Cup runners will fit this trend, but it’s still worth noting as it knocks out the 2021 winner Minella Indo, who is aged 10. All of the other 12 runners fit the bill, with Galopin Des Champs aged 7 and looking to join Kauto Star, Sizing John and Al Boum Photo as 7 year-old winners in recent years.

The last 10 (or older) year-old Gold Cup winner was Cool Dawn (10) in 1998.

Having a Run In The Last 3 Months Is Another Huge Plus

Fitness is also key for the Gold Cup – well, having a recent run at least. We’ve seen a massive 18 of the last 19 winners run within the last 3 months. Again, the main bulk of entries will be fine here, with Galopin Des Champs last running 41 days ago in the Irish Gold Cup.

However, it does put a line through the King George VI Chase winner Bravemansgame, who was last seen running in that Kempton Boxing Day race 81 days back. It’s also not a great stat for the current champ – A Plus Tard – who was last on the track in the Betfair Chase 118 days ago.

Conflated (79), Hewick (153), Royale Pagaille (81) and Minella Indo (75) are others that fall down here.

89% Of the Last 19 Winners Had Run Over Fences at Cheltenham Before

The ‘horses for courses’ rule applies a lot at Cheltenham and with 89% of the last 19 Gold Cup winners having tasted the Cheltenham fences before. Several are fine here, but Bravemansgame has only run here over hurdles (3rd in 2021 Ballymore), while Hewick is another that’s not raced here before.

16 Of The Last 19 Gold Cup Winners Came From The Top Three In The Betting

The Gold Cup has also been a race that punter have often got right in recent years. We’ve seen 16 of the last 19 winners hail from the top three in the betting. Of course, the betting can change an lot into the race, but as it stands, Galopin Des Champs, Bravemansgame and A Plus Tard tick this Cheltenham stat.

The Favourite Has Won 47% Of Recent Gold Cups

Following on the ‘top three’ trends it’s no shocker that the favourite in the Gold Cup has also done well recently. The market leader for the Gold Cup has won 47% of the last 19, which is a fair return in the best Cheltenham Festival race. Yet another plus for Galopin Des Champs.

Look For Horses That Won Last Time Out

Recent winners have also done well in the Gold Cup. We’ve had 14 of the last 19 (74%) of winners taking this off the back of a win. Of the 13 runners this year, this is a plus for Galopin Des Champs, Bravemansgame, Conflated, Ahoy Senor, Minella Indo and Hewick.

While of those it’s a negative for include last year’s Grand National winner – Noble Yeats (3rd last time).

The Irish Have Trained 5 Of The Last 6 Gold Cup Winners

As we all know the Irish have dominated the Cheltenham Festival in recent times and they’ve also farmed the Gold Cup. We’ve seen an Irish-trained winner of the Gold Cup in 5 of the last 6 years – with Native River (2018) – the last Gold Cup horse to not be Irish-trained.

Again, another feather in the cap for the favourite – Galopin Des Champs, plus Conflated, Stattler Hewick and Minella Indo. Plus, also last year’s winner A Plus Tard – who will be looking to join Al Boum Photo and Best Mate as recent back-to-back winners of the race.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends Tip: Galopin Des Champs Ticks All The Boxes

Overall, there is one horse that keeps cropping up – and that’s the likely Gold Cup favourite – GALOPIN DES CHAMPS.

The Willie Mullins yard will be looking for their third win in the last five years and it seems Galopin Des Champs has one of the best profiles going into the race. Okay, those looking to take him on will look to his fall in the Turners Novices’ Chase last season.

But he’s since bounced back to win his next three, including another easy success in the Irish Gold Cup last month. Let’s also not forget he’s a past Festival winner too – when taking the Martin Pipe back in 2021, while at just 7 there is every chance we’ve not seen the best of him yet either. A scary thought for his oppo!

We also feel MINELLA INDO, despite being a 10 year-old, has a top chance of running well – but maybe not winning. The 2021 Gold Cup winner was also runner up 12 months and his overall Festival record reads 1-2-1-2 – He loves this place!

Cheltenham Gold Cup Betting with SpreadEx

Latest 2023 Cheltenham Gold Cup betting with SpreadEx, with the Willie Mullins-trained Galopin Des Champs the Gold Cup favourite. You can also get money back on 2nd’s to the SP fav

Galopin Des Champs @ 7/4
A Plus Tard @ 6/1
Bravemansgame @ 7/1
Noble Yeats @ 7/1
Stattler @ 9/1
Protektorat @ 12/1
Conflated @ 14/1
Ahoy Senor @ 16/1
Minella Indo @ 18/1
Sounds Russian @ 25/1
Hewick @ 28/1
Royale Pagaille @ 28/1
Eldorado Allen @ 100/1

Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends to Help Find The Winner

See below our in-depth 2023 Cheltenham Gold Cup trends to help you find the best profile based on past winners of the race. Apply these Sandown stats to the final runners to see which horses have the most going for them.

Gold Cup Trends – The Positives

19 of the last 23 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
19 of the last 22 finished 1 or 2 last time out
18 of the last 23 winners were 2 or 3 season chasers
11 of the last 17 winners had run 9 or less times over fences
22 of the last 23 winners were Grade 1 winners
Every winner since 2000 only had one season hurdling
18 of the last 22 had won or placed at the Festival before
18 of the last 22 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
20 of the last 23 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
13 of the last 15 winners ran 3 or less times that season
17 of the last 26 winners were bred in Ireland
16 of the last 22 winners won last time out
10 of the last 20 winners were favourites (50%)
13 of the last 18 winners yet to win beyond 3m 1/2f
ALL of the last 23 winners were aged 9 or younger
22 of the last 23 winners aged between 7-9 years-old
20 of the last 23 winners were in their first three seasons over fences
Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a good record
5 of the last 12 winners ran in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase the previous season

Gold Cup Trends – The Negatives

Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 73)
Just one winning 6 year-old since 1964
Horses rated 166 or less are only 6 from last 41
Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
Willie Mullins has only won the race twice (2020, 2019), 2 from 36 (had 4 of the last 10 seconds and the 2019 & 2020 winner though)
Only 3 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
Just 2 of the last 15 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t fare well
Only 2 winners since 2000 had previously been beaten in the race
No winner since 2000 ran in that season’s Cotswold Chase