49ers vs. Vikings Week 7 prop picks: Hockenson, Aiyuk should be heavily involved

The San Francisco 49ers look for a rebound in Minnesota this week as they face the Vikings on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: San Fran suffered its first loss last weekend in Cleveland and is a 6.5-point favourite this time around. We're backing star receiver Brandon Aiyuk to be a key factor for the 49ers, while Vikings' tight end T.J. Hockenson should see plenty of targets on the other side.

NFL oddsas of 11:20 a.m. ET 10/22/2023.

49ers vs. Vikings prop picks

Best Bet: Aiyuk over 4.5 receptions (-136)

There's some extra juice on Aiyuk's reception line, but for good reason. San Francisco will be without at least one notable weapon in Deebo Samuel, which should open the door for Aiyuk to see an uptick in targets.

And let's be clear, Aiyuk isn't currently lacking in targets. Brock Purdy has thrown Aiyuk's way a team-high 37 times, with at least six targets in each of their five games.

Second on the 49ers' list in targets is Samuel (32), and he has been ruled out with a shoulder injury. After him is Christian McCaffrey (27), who is questionable with an oblique injury and could be limited if he plays.

Opportunity is crucial for a volume-based prop like this one, and San Fran's personnel situation points to a big night for Aiyuk.

The Vikings are a fantastic matchup for opposing WRs, too, as they allow the second-most receptions (16.7/game) and the sixth-most yards (194.0/game) to that position group.

Key stat: Aiyuk has averaged 5.2 receptions per game when playing without Samuel, per StatMuse, and he's cleared this total in seven of those 11 games.

Quick pick

Hockenson over 5.5 receptions (-117): We know this isn't a plus matchup for the Vikings' tight end, but that shouldn't matter. He has a sizeable role carved out in this offence, which is further pronounced by Justin Jefferson's absence.

Hockenson has averaged 6.0 catches per game since joining the Vikings midseason in 2022, and he's cleared this line in four of six games so far this year.

The former eighth-overall pick has eight or more targets in five of six games, which is a great baseline for racking up targets.

Last week was Hockenson's first game for Minnesota sans Jefferson. The tight end caught six of eight passes for 50 yards.