Athletics vs Dodgers Prediction, Picks, Odds
It's game two of a three-game set between the Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Dodgers and our MLB expert has found a nice plus-money market to attack. Will bats or arms win the battle tonight? Read on to find out!
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After Monday’s shellacking of the Oakland A’s, the Dodgers will look to secure the series win on Tuesday night with Tony Gonsolin on the hill. Will the right-hander be able to recapture his form from seasons’ past, or will this one become too close for comfort?
MLB odds have them listed as -280 favorites with the A's coming back as +230 underdogs.
Let’s break down this game and my best bet for A’s vs. Dodgers in our MLB picks and predictions.
Athletics vs Dodgers odds
Athletics vs Dodgers predictions
The Oakland Athletics have decided to hit, at long last. Veterans like Tony Kemp are starting to figure things out, and the team’s influx of prospect help has given this team a much-needed shot in the arm even as they head towards yet another season without playoff baseball.
Oakland is ninth in wRC+ over the last two weeks, walking in a nice 9.4% of plate appearances and posting a solid .167. Best of all, the A’s are sporting just a .288 BABIP, proving that this isn’t entirely due to luck. The A’s may not be able to sustain this, but they’re hitting the ball very well right now and nothing about their recent success is a fluke.
This is where things get complicated for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Tony Gonsolin has been all softs of awful this year, posting a lowly 19.7% strikeout rate while walking more hitters and allowing a poor .252 expected batting average. With fewer ground balls, fewer strikeouts and fewer walks, Gonsolin is ripe for the picking here.
Hogan Harris hasn’t been the best pitcher in the world, but I do have faith the A’s can at least get him some run support here. That’s got me looking at this total, and I’ll go ahead and take this Over all the way up to 10 runs.
My best bet: Over 9.5 (+100 at FanDuel)
Athletics vs Dodgers same-game parlay
Over 9.5
Gonsolin 2+ walks
Harris 2+ walks
Brown 1+ hit
Let’s start off with the last leg here before we get into the two pitching props. Gonsolin has been allowing fly balls at an alarming 28.7% rate which should really put a damper on his evening. The A’s have some pretty big fly ball threats, but none as big as Seth Brown.
Brown leads this team with a 51.5% fly ball rate, rarely putting the ball on the ground. He should be in a delightful spot here against Gonsolin and I’d expect him to pick up an extra-base hit at the very least. With the price short on Brown to get a hit, I think he’s a very worthy bet to pick one up.
Both of these teams have walk rates of 9% or better over the last two weeks, with the Dodgers up over 12%. These pitchers each find themselves in the bottom third of the league in walk rate, and Gonsolin in particular has been mediocre in this regard with three walks in each of his last two starts. I like both pitchers to issue a ton of free passes.
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Athletics vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
I’d actually say my favorite bet in this one other than the total, and the parlay, is to take the A’s on the run line. This team has preformed somewhat comparably to the Dodgers by the offensive metrics in the last 14 days, and with neither pitcher entering with a discernable edge I think there’s certainly not this much between the teams.
I suppose that would make the A’s a pretty nice value on the moneyline as well. This Dodgers bullpen has been working hard of late and they’ve experienced a ton of turnover over the last week or so with trades and demotions. It’s anything but a guarantee they’re able to hold Oakland at bay when Gonsolin is inevitably knocked out of this game.
It’s also worth noting here that while 67% of the bets are on the Dodgers here to win this game, 68% of the money is on Oakland. That would make the A’s a very sharp bet here on Wednesday night.
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Trend to know
The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 59 of their last 104 games (+15.10 Units / 13% ROI) Find more MLB betting trends for Athletics vs. Dodgers
Athletics vs Dodgers game info
Starting pitchers
Hogan Harris, (2-5, 6.07 ERA): Harris has strung together two very nice starts in sequence, giving up just four earned runs in the last two starts with nine strikeouts in 9 1/3 innings. He allowed just two home runs in the month of July in a huge step forward.
Tony Gonsolin (5-4, 4.25 ERA): Gonsolin has now allowed a combined nine earned runs in his last two starts, totaling 10 innings. While he’s struck out 11, he’s walked six. He’s also given up a homer in each of his last four starts and has now allowed seven in his last six outings.
