Avalanche vs Rangers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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05 February 2024

Avalanche vs Rangers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Colorado Avalanche skate into the Big Apple as slight underdogs against the Rangers, but with no Trouba and Jonathan Quick between the pipes, our NHL picks believe Colorado will leave N.Y. with two key points.

All-Star festivities are in the books, and the Colorado Avalanche visit the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden on Monday. It’s a showdown between a pair of division leaders and favorites in the Stanley Cup odds.

Colorado won three straight ahead of the break, but the Avalanche haven’t been nearly as dominant away from Mile High with a 12-9-3 road record. While New York boasts a rock-solid 15-7 mark on home ice, the Rangers entered the holiday break with an underwhelming 4-6-2 stretch.

New York is a short home favorite in the NHL odds at most sportsbooks, but is there opportunity for a Colorado upset? Find out what I think in my free NHL picks for the Avalanche vs. Rangers on February 5.

Avalanche vs Rangers odds

Avalanche vs Rangers predictions

New York Rangers backup Jonathan Quick will make the home start after No. 1 Igor Shesterkin participated in the All-Star events this weekend. While Quick actually has superior numbers with a .915 SV% and 2.43 GAA across 17 appearances, I still peg him as a downgrade from Shesterkin.

Additionally, New York captain Jacob Trouba isn’t eligible to return from his two-game suspension until Wednesday. He paces the club in shorthanded ice time per night and consistently plays against the opposition’s best players.

My numbers already gave the Colorado Avalanche an edge, so New York playing without Shesterkin and Trouba is going to be tough on the Blueshirts.

Colorado has scored the second-most goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (2.99) and ranks 11th in my offense ratings and ninth in my defense ratings. The Avs also got both Artturi Lehkonen and Bowen Byram back from injuries before the break to bolster the depth chart.

I’m anticipating the Avalanche topping the shorthanded Rangers on Monday.

My best bet: Avalanche moneyline (-103 at Pinnacle)

Avalanche vs Rangers same-game parlay

Avalanche moneylineNathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 shots

In addition to my best bet, I’m adding Avs center Nathan MacKinnon to register Over 3.5 shots against the Rangers. He’s cleared this 3.5 total in nine of 12 January games and ranks 10th in shots per 60 minutes for the season.

As discussed, New York will miss Trouba, and the Rangers allowed 31 shots last time out to the Ottawa Senators when he was out of the lineup. MacKinnon sports a high-end 56.1 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5, and he paces Colorado in shots per 60 with the man advantage (17.33).

Additionally, there’s also a small edge in placing this same-game parlay through DraftKings. It is priced as short as +186 via FanDuel, so we’re landing a positive expected value of 6% with the +202 odds.

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Avalanche vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

There has been limited movement to this moneyline. Pinnacle opened with Colorado trading at -102 on Sunday, and while there were minor adjustments, the Avalanche are trading at -103 as of Monday afternoon. I am surprised there hasn’t been more movement to the Colorado side following the announcement that Quick is starting.

It’s just the opposite with the total. There has been huge action on the Over 6.5 goals. Pinnacle opened with the Under 6.5 goals priced at -116, and now that vig has flipped with the Over 6.5 trading at -115 as of Monday afternoon. There are some supporting trends, too. The Over has hit in seven of the past nine games at Madison Square Garden, and each of Colorado’s past five road games.