Bears vs. Commanders Predictions, Picks, Odds Today: Justin Fields, DJ Moore, Brian Robinson Jr., and More

Although this might be the worst prime-time game of the season, football is still football, right? You might be complaining about having to watch the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders tonight, but never take the NFL for granted. When the season is over, you would be begging to watch the Bears vs. Commanders, even if it was just a preseason game.

The Bears enter tonight as one of the two winless teams remaining. On the bright side, however, the other team is the Carolina Panthers, who owe their first-round pick to Chicago. So if the season ended today, the Bears would have the top two picks in the draft. Good news for Bears fans, bad news for Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr.

Washington, meanwhile, is looking to get above .500 after falling just short of upsetting the Philadelphia Eagles for the second time in a row (as an Eagles fan, thank you, Ron Rivera, for not going for two at the end of regulation).

The Commanders are currently six-point favorites, which is the largest they’ll be favored by all season. Let’s dive into the rest of the odds and the Bears vs. Commanders predictions, picks, and favorite player prop bets from PFN’s betting team.

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Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders Betting Lines, Start Time, and More

All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless stated otherwise.

• Spread
  Commanders -6
• Moneyline
  Bears +215, Commanders -265
• Over/Under
  44.5
• Game Time
  8:15 p.m. ET
• Location
  FedExField
• How To Watch
  Amazon Prime Video

Bearman: In a matchup in which I have no interest in laying almost a touchdown with Washington or holding my nose with a Bears cover, I’m going to isolate a very poor Commanders defense that has allowed 114 points over the last three weeks. Not only that, but a wide receiver has gone over 100 yards in all three of those games, with two WR1s in Stefon Diggs and A.J. Brown and Broncos rookie Marvin Mims Jr.

DJ Moore’s yardage prop is only 48.5, so I’m only asking him to get half of that total. On the same front, Justin Fields, while having some bad games this year, has a chance to match last week’s 300+ yard game against this poor defense. He’s a lot more likely to hit that than go under 100 yards again, like he did against the Chiefs. Fields’ number is only 189.5, so I’m going over there.

As far as the game total, I lean over 44.5, considering how many points Washington has given up in recent weeks and Chicago’s offense coming off its best game of the season last week vs. Denver.

Picks: DJ Moore over 48.5 (-114 at FanDuel), Justin Fields over 189.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel), Over 44.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

Katz: The Bears are consistently a run defense to attack. They’ve given up the 10th-most rushing yards on the season so far.

Last week, Brian Robinson Jr. had not one but two touchdowns stolen from him. The Commanders are home, and they’re favored. We should see positive game script with a whole lot of BRob. He’s finding the end zone tonight.

In addition to Robinson scoring, I like the Commanders to really lean on him tonight. Since he took over as the lead runner in Week 6 of last season, Washington has won (or tied) nine games in which he’s played. He’s carried the ball at least 17 times in seven of them.

The Commanders are touchdown home favorites against a bad run defense. Game script should not get away from them, allowing Washington to continue feeding Robinson. Antonio Gibson is only stealing a couple of carries a game. This is Robinson’s backfield. Unless the Bears storm out to an early lead, Robinson should reach 20 carries.

Picks: Brian Robinson anytime touchdown (+104 at Caesars) and Robinson over 15.5 rush attempts (-108 at Caesars)

Soppe: Justin Fields had the big Week 4; that is factually accurate. How predicative that is of future production is to be determined when you consider the form of the opponent he lit up.

Through one month, Fields’ aDOT is down 18.4% from last season, and he’s working on a streak of 149 straight pass attempts without a 35-yard completion.

I have a hard time thinking that volume is on the side of Fields in this one. In part due to the matchup and part due to Chicago just not wanting to play that way.

Prior to last week, Fields was averaging just 17 completions per game, a number that ranked at the bottom of the barrel in today’s pass-heavy NFL.

Since the beginning of last season, the Commanders are a bottom-10 team in pace of play and a top-10 team in average time of possession, while the Bears are bottom 10 in the latter. In a low-possession spot supporting a low-octane offense, I’m finding ways to bet against a Fields repeat performance.

Pick: Justin Fields longest completion under 34.5 yards (-125 at DraftKings)

Blewis: Katz beat me to one of my favorite picks for tonight’s game in Robinson to score a touchdown, so I’ll go in a different route because what’s the point in giving out the same bet twice?

In last week’s loss against the Broncos, Cole Kmet had both more receptions and targets than the previous two weeks combined. Tonight, however, he faces a Commanders defense that has allowed just 13 receptions for 83 yards to tight ends this season. Over four weeks, that’s an average of 3.25 catches and 20.75 yards per game. In those four games, they’ve also allowed just two catches of more than 10 yards to opposing tight ends.

Right now, Kmet’s longest reception prop is at 15.5, which he’s only gone over in one game this season (Denver last week). Considering the amount of juice on the unders for his other player props, this one has the most value, in my estimation. But there’s also one more player pro I like, and that’s on the other team tonight.

In his second season after being a first-round pick in 2022, Jahan Dotson has 14 receptions in four games but for only 110 yards, an average of 7.9 yards per catch.

Sam Howell has the third-lowest aDOT of starting quarterbacks so far this season, so that is obviously playing a factor here. But Dotson’s completion rate over expectation is also very low at -9.8% — second to last in the NFL of players with at least 25 targets.

Dotson’s yardage prop at 41.5 seems inflated because of the defense he’s going up against, considering he hasn’t gone over that number once this season.

Picks: Cole Kmet longest reception under 15.5 yards (-110 at DraftKings), Jahan Dotson under 41.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)

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