Bengals vs. Ravens Prediction, Picks, Odds Week 11

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13 November 2023

Bengals vs. Ravens Prediction, Picks, Odds Week 11

Thursday Night Football features a divisional matchup for the first time in five weeks as the Baltimore Ravens host the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 11, and we make our best Bengals vs. Ravens prediction for Thursday Night Football based on the best NFL odds.

The Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with a 30-27 home loss to the Houston Texans in Week 10. In the process, quarterback Joe Burrow fell to 20-4-1 ATS in his previous 25 non-division games.

The Baltimore Ravens (7-3) are coming off a historic loss to the Cleveland Browns in Week 10. Elias Sports Bureau noted that they are the fourth team in the Super Bowl era to lose after leading in the first minute of a game and not trailing until the final minute. In addition, ESPN Stats & Info revealed that it was Cleveland’s first win in its last 25 games when trailing by 14 or more points.

Here is our best Bengals vs. Ravens prediction for Thursday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bengals vs. Ravens prediction: Thursday Night Football

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow continued his lack of success as a big favorite last week, falling to 2-7 ATS when his team has been favored by seven or more points. There is some trepidation fading Burrow in this spot, as he is 34-14-1 (71%) ATS in all other games. Still, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is 11-4 SU in November or later against teams with a winning record (per Jamison Henley via ESPN Stats & Info), and the Ravens have a significant advantage not having to travel on a short week.

Entering last week, the Ravens had the third-best DVOA of any team through nine games since 1981, and Jackson’s play has had much to do with that. Jackson entered Week 10 with the most big-time throws (9) and highest passer rating when under pressure this season, and he is also the most accurate passer on attempts of 10-plus yards, per PFF.

This is a three-star play, as the Ravens beat caliber playoff opponents like the Seattle Seahawks, Detroit Lions, and the Browns — in their first meeting — by a combined 103-12 before last week’s collapse. In addition, Jackson is 14-3 at home in the regular season in November or later. The Ravens have held Burrow to a 3-3 TD-INT ratio and a 35.3 QBR or worse in three of the last four meetings, so we expect the Ravens to cover in this critical AFC North tilt.

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Bengals vs. Ravens best odds

The best price for Ravens backers is at BetRivers, as none of our other best sports betting apps offer less than standard -110 juice to back the favorites. This would be a no-play at -4, but we would not put anyone off waiting for a better line, as the spread may revert to Ravens -3 later in the week. Baltimore has covered in each of the previous three meetings between these teams.

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Bengals vs. Ravens odds for Thursday Night Football

Caesars opened at -3.5 like the rest of our best sports betting sites, but that number was quickly bet to -4 within the first half hour of opening. The current numbers are vastly different from the lookahead lines for this game, as most sportsbooks had Baltimore at -2.5 before Week 10 kicked off. The Bengals are 4-4-1 ATS this season, while the Ravens have covered the spread in six of 10 games.

There is a split among the best sportsbooks regarding the total, as half offer an O/U of 43.5, and the other half are at 44. Both teams are profitable Under teams, as Cincinnati has an O/U record of 4-5, while Baltimore cashed the Under in six of its 10 games. The Over has cashed in this rivalry's previous three meetings.