Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Week 14
This is the championship week of the last great college football season. It is very bittersweet for me because I've watched the NFL and various other sports become unwatchable for much of the regular season due to expanded playoffs. College football is taking away the last thing that makes it truly unique – a regular season where you get one free pass, but you have to win the rest. It creates an urgency that can't be replicated in any other place in sports. It's like a season-long NCAA basketball tournament...and now it's gone.
We only have eight conference championship games today, so it's a much lighter Saturday. We also didn't have any rescheduled games this season, so the conference championships will stand on their own. Washington punched their ticket to the playoff last night and avoided Armageddon for the CFP. Will the rest go as planned?
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points from year to year. Here are the results so far. I had a good week as far as points last week but missed a lot of lower picks.
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for 2023 Week 14 (December 2, 2023)
(18) Oklahoma State vs. (7) Texas (-14.5) at Jerry World
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Are we getting the Oklahoma State team that got embarrassed in Orlando or the one that beat Oklahoma? I'm asking for a friend. Actually, the one that beat Oklahoma hasn't shown up since. Give me Texas, but I'm lowering the bet because of the hook.
When Texas beats Oklahoma State for the Big 12 championship, people will talk about how OU and Texas left the Big 12 with the most and second most Big 12 championships
Oklahoma will have 13
Texas will have 4
— Boomer Beamer (@ImDerBatman) November 25, 2023
Miami (OH) vs. Toledo (-7.5) at Detroit
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Rockets beat the Redhawks by this in Oxford with Brett Gabbert in for three quarters. Give me Toledo.
Boise State (-2.5) at UNLV
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This is a home game for the Rebels and Boise hasn't played well on the road. That's not saying anything about their two-QB system which has kind of worked or their top receiver transferring out in the middle of the season. Ricky White is going to lead the Rebels to a conference title. Give me UNLV outright.
SMU at (22) Tulane (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Guys! Guys! Preston Stone is not playing in this game. Tulane is going to roll and this line is dropping. SMASH THIS!
(1) Georgia (-5.5) vs. (8) Alabama at Atlanta
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Including his time at LSU, Nick Saban is:
- 10-1 in SEC Championship Games
- 7-0 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- 8-3 all time against No. 1 ranked teams
- Alabama has won 16 straight games in ATL with their last loss being to Tim Tebow in 2008
THESE ALABAMA STATS ����…
— The Next Round (@NextRoundLive) December 1, 2023
All right. I'm in. Roll Tide!
Appalachian State at Troy (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't trust any part of this one. If App State can walk into Harrisburg and take down James Madison, they can beat the Trojans at home. I'll take Appalachian State because I think this stays closer than a touchdown. I don't know if they'll win or not.
(14) Louisville vs. (4) Florida State (-1.5) at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Honestly, I'm surprised that FSU is still favored. Not that I think Louisville is that good. They lost to two unranked teams. It's just that Florida State will either have a hobbled second-string quarterback or a third-stringer making his first start. Give me Louisville.
(2) Michigan (-21.5) vs. (16) Iowa
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Yes, Iowa might not score. Michigan might not either. I could see this game being 7-2 because of a defensive touchdown and a safety. I'm taking the under and betting Iowa. No way Michigan wins by more than three touchdowns. I'll be surprised if they win by double-digits period.
I didn't place any minimum bets this week. I only maxed out one, but I'm pretty close to max-betting the Iowa spread too. That's too many. I ended up with more four-pointers (four) than anything else. I have two twos and three threes. No, I didn't plan it that way. It just kind of worked out.
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