Betting Splits and NFL Divisional Round Smart Money Picks for Sunday January 21

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I’ll also be breaking down games this morning from 8 to 10 a.m. ET on The Sweat, live from the DraftKings studio in Boston.

You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s NFL Divisional Round doubleheader.

The Buccaneers (10-8) are the 4-seed and have won six of their last seven games, crushing the Eagles 32-9 in the Wild Card round and winning outright as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Lions (13-5) are the 3-seed and have won four of their last five games, edging the Rams 24-23 in the Wild Card round but failing to cover as 3-point home favorites.

This line opened with the Lions listed as a 6-point home favorite. We saw this line creep up to Lions -6.5 and even touch -7 at some shops earlier in the week. However, over the past 24-48 hours we’ve seen steady and consistent sharp buyback on the Bucs, dropping the Lions back down to -6. Some shops are even juicing up the Bucs +6 to -115 or -120, flirting with a move down to Bucs +5.5. Essentially all late movement and liability is breaking back toward Tampa Bay. This movement is especially notable because the public is all over Detroit, who is receiving 64% of spread bets. This indicates a sharp line freeze and late reverse line movement on Tampa Bay plus the points.

Tampa Bay has contrarian value, receiving only 36% of bets in a heavily bet playoff game. Playoff dogs are 5-3 ATS (62%) this postseason and 48-32 ATS (60%) since 2017. The Bucs are 12-6 ATS this season and 9-3 ATS as a dog, both the best marks in the NFL. Tampa Bay also has the edge defensively, giving up only 18.6 PPG (5th) compared to Detroit allowing 23.2 PPG (23rd).

The total opened at 49, reached as high as 50 and has ticked back down to 49.5. Currently 61% of bets and 75% of money is taking the over. Playoff “high totals” 47 or more are 2-1 to the under this postseason and 28-14 (67%) since 2018. The Bucs are 12-6 (67%) to the under this season, the second best under team in the NFL. The Lions are 11-7 to the over.

Player Prop to Consider: Cade Otton over 29.5 receiving yards (-110). Otton cashed the over last week against the Eagles, finishing with 8 catches for 89 yards. He also led the team in targets with eight. Otton has gone over this number in five of his last seven games. The Lions gave up the 9th most yards to tight ends during the regular season.

The Chiefs (12-6) are the 3-seed and have won three straight games, crushing the Dolphins 26-7 in the Wild Card round and easily covering as 4.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Bills (12-6) are the 2-seed and have won six straight games, taking down the Steelers 31-17 in the Wild Card round and covering as 10-point home favorites.

This line opened with the Bills listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is laying the points with Buffalo at home. However, despite 62% of bets backing the Bills, the line hasn’t budged off -2.5. Some books briefly rose to -3 and immediately came back down to -2.5. This signals a sharp line freeze on the Chiefs, with books reluctant to move to -3 for fear of giving out a key number to contrarian Chiefs backers.

Kansas City has rare contrarian value, receiving only 38% of bets in a heavily bet primetime game. Playoff dogs are 5-3 ATS (62%) this postseason and 48-32 ATS (60%) since 2017. Patrick Mahomes is a 8-1 ATS (89%) in his career as a dog. Remember, the Chiefs won last year’s Super Bowl as a 1.5-point dog. Mahomes is 2-0 SU and ATS against the Bills in the postseason. Kansas City enjoys a rest vs tired advantage, as the Chiefs played on Saturday while the Bills played on Monday. Kansas City is also fully healthy while the Bills have several injuries and will be without WR Gabe Davis along, CB Christian Benford, LB Baylon Spector and S Taylor Rapp. Those looking to back the Chiefs would be wise to shop around or buy Kansas City up to the key number of +3. The Chiefs are also in a prime teaser spot (+2.5 to +8.5), passing through multiple key numbers.

Pros have also leaned under, dropping the total from 46 to 45.5. The under is only receiving 32% of bets but 40% of money, a sharp contrarian bet split. When the total falls at least a half point the under is 22-15 (60%) in the postseason since 2017. The forecast calls for low 20s with 10 MPH winds. Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, is 57% to the under and 56% to the road team historically. The Chiefs are 13-5 to the under this season, the best under team in the NFL.

Player Prop(s) to Consider: Dalton Kincaid Over 38.5 receiving yards (-115). Kincaid cashed the over last week, catching 3 passes for 59 yards against the Steelers. He is 3-0 to the over in his last three games. He finished with 91 targets in the regular season, second most on the team behind only Stefon Diggs (160). Kincaid is likely to see increased targets once again with Gabe Davis out. The Chiefs gave up the third most receiving yards to tight ends during the regular season.

Rashee Rice over 69.5 receiving yards (-130). Rice cashed the over last week, catching 8 passes for 130 yards against the Dolphins. He has gone over this number in four of his last five games. Rice finished second on the Chiefs in targets during the regular season with 102, trailing only Travis Kelce (121).