Bills vs. Chargers Prediction, Pick & Odds Week 16: Sunday Night Football

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23 December 2023

Bills vs. Chargers Prediction, Pick & Odds Week 16: Sunday Night Football

Two teams heading in opposite directions square off on a special Saturday edition of Sunday Night Football, and we have you covered with our Bills vs. Chargers prediction based on the best NFL odds.

NFL fans are treated to Sunday Night Football on Saturday in Week 16 when the Buffalo Bills travel to Los Angeles to take on the reeling Chargers.

Despite the fact that nearly everyone wrote off the Bills in the Super Bowl odds for weeks, they're still pushing toward a postseason spot and beat the Dallas Cowboys in Week 15 to keep their NFL playoff odds alive.

On the other hand, the Chargers (5-9) were most recently seen getting destroyed on Thursday Night Football. As a result, they fired their head coach and general manager, and they enter this contest as a team in turmoil.

In addition to our NFL Week 16 predictions and Bills vs. Chargers player props, here is our best Bills vs. Chargers prediction for Sunday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bills vs. Chargers prediction: Sunday Night Football

Bills team total Over 27.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The best bet for this game was originally Chargers +14, which disappeared almost immediately. Now the value is gone on the home underdogs, and it still feels risky to lay nearly two touchdowns on the road with a Bills team that has historically disappointed in similar spots.

Instead, I'm backing Buffalo's offense to keep sizzling against the hot mess in Los Angeles.

Last week's 31-10 win over the Cowboys turned heads around the league, but it was nothing new for this Bills attack, which ranks second in offensive DVOA (22.8%) and EPA per play (+0.19). Buffalo also paces the league in third-down conversion rate (49.2%) while owning top-five marks in points per drive (2.47), drive success rate (43.3%), and red-zone touchdown percentage (67.3%) - which speaks to just how unstoppable this offense really is.

The Bills' offense has been even more productive under interim coordinator Joe Brady, ranking in the top five in scoring (29.3 PPG) and total offense (394 YPG) while posting at least 31 points in three of four contests. That's coincided with a resurgence from QB Josh Allen, who has climbed up the NFL MVP odds behind his dual-threat brilliance. Our Andrew Brennan has more on him in his Josh Allen player props.

Compare all that to the Chargers, who rank 27th in defensive EPA per play (+0.01) and sit in the bottom six in opponent points per game (24.6) and per drive (2.11). They've also struggled to generate takeaways, ranking 10th-worst in percentage of opponent drives ending in a turnover (10.1%) and fifth-worst in defensive interception rate (1.4%).

It all came to a head last week against the Las Vegas Raiders, whose 63 points were the second-most by a team this season and tied for the seventh-most in a game in NFL history. The Bolts promptly fired defensive-minded head coach Brandon Staley and replaced him with outside linebackers coach Giff Smith, which led to a reshuffling of roles across the entire defensive staff.

Maybe that organizational chaos will ultimately remedy this team's defensive woes, though the Chargers' star defenders have also been absent all season, and the results have been plain to see. Now they face arguably their toughest test of the season against one of the hottest offenses in the league. Good luck with that one.

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Bills vs. Chargers best odds

Most of our best sports betting apps are dealing the Bills' team total at 27.5, though not every offering is the same. With odds as short as -135 on the Over, we're targeting the -110 price via Caesars, which is currently the best on the market.

As always, it pays to shop around at the best sportsbooks, as the difference between -110 and -135 is a difference of nearly 17% of your original stake. It's also worth checking out our best sportsbook promos to make the most out of your wager.

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Bills vs. Chargers odds for Sunday Night Football

As we mentioned earlier, the Chargers opened as 14-point underdogs but drew swift action at that price, forcing this line to drop anywhere from 11.5 to 12.5 in favor of the Bills across our best sports betting sites.

The total has also seen notable movement this week, shifting from an opening mark of 42 to as high as 44 at some of our best sportsbooks.