Bills vs. Dolphins: Odds, predictions, props and best bets
The AFC East title match between the Bills and Dolphins has been flexed into Sunday Night Football. All eyes will be on this pivotal game. The Dolphins are 11-5 and currently hold the top spot in the division along with the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Miami is coming off a blowout 56-19 loss to the top-seeded Ravens. Buffalo is 10-6 with wins in five of their last six contests. Their one loss in the stretch was in overtime to the Eagles.
The Dolphins are home underdogs across the top Michigan sportsbooks.
The Bills have won five of their last six, but it hasn’t all been smooth sailing. Last week, the Bills faced the Patriots. The game opened up with a 98-yard opening kick return by Jalen Reagor for the Pats. After a Buffalo punt, New England had the ball again. The Bills forced an interception and got the ball at the 21-yard line, but only managed a field goal. A few drives later, the Bills got another interception starting them 10 yards from the endzone. This time they scored a touchdown. The next New England drive, the Pats fumbled giving the Bills the ball again inside the 30. Despite three turnovers in or around the red zone, the Bills were only up 13-7.
All in all, the first half ended with four Patriots turnovers, yet a close 20-14 game. Josh Allen struggled in the first quarter to complete a pass and ended the game 15 for 30 for just 169 yards. The Bills will need a stronger performance out of Allen to beat the Dolphins and win in the postseason.
Along with Allen, Diggs was silenced. The receiver has not produced in the back half of the season. Diggs started the season with 100+ yards in five of the first six games. He’s failed to put up at least 50 yards in six of the last seven. He had just one reception for five yards last week and he hasn’t scored in over a month.
The Bills can win the division and host a home playoff game. They can also miss the playoffs potentially.
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At times, Miami looks unstoppable. Other times, the Dolphins struggle to beat playoff teams. The 56-19 pumping by the Ravens has dropped the Dolphins from third-best (+750) odds to win the Super Bowl to seventh (+1300) on Caesars Sportsbook.
Last time the Dolphins and Bills played, Buffalo won 48-20. In that game, the Bills scored 31 in the first half. Along with the loss to the Bills, Miami also lost to the Chiefs, Eagles, Titans and aforementioned Ravens last week.
The Bills (+800), Chiefs (+950), Eagles (+1200) all have better odds than the Dolphins.
Miami’s defense has been in question all season and last week did them no favors in ending that narrative. Along with the loss on the scoresheet, the Dolphins also lost star linebacker Bradley Chubb for the season with an ACL injury. The Dolphins are 21st in opponents points per game, allowing 23.1 points per game. On the other side, the Bills sport a top-five defense allowing just 18.6 per game.
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The Dolphins have the number-one scoring offense in the league, putting up 30.1 points per game. Not far behind is the Bills in sixth, averaging 26.9 points per game. There are a handful of favorable scenarios like a 7-7, 7-3, 10-0, 10-3, etc. first quarter score to reach this mark. These teams combined for 21 points in the first quarter the last time they played.
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It’d be surprising for Diggs to continue to fizzle out in this pivotal AFC East title match. The star pass-catcher is due for a big game. The Bills will look to get the ball in their best player’s hands. Plus, the Dolphins already struggling and depleted on defense.
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