Blue Jays vs Rockies Prediction, Picks, Odds

Covers

01 September 2023

Blue Jays vs Rockies Prediction, Picks, Odds

While Toronto may be desperate for a win, it doesn't change the fact that John Schneider's team is missing key players and continues to struggle with RISP. Find out how this affects tonight's handicap by reading our Blue Jays vs. Rockies betting picks.

The Toronto Blue Jays currently sit 2.5 games back from a wild card spot and open a pivotal six-game road trip tonight against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field.

The Blue Jays are without Bo Bichette and Matt Chapman, while veteran slugger Brandon Belt is also listed as questionable. It’s an offense that has struggled all season, but can the thin Colorado air save the Toronto bats tonight as a -190 road favorite with a total of 12.5?

Find out where my best bets lie in our free MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Rockies on September 1.

Blue Jays vs Rockies odds

Blue Jays vs Rockies predictions

It may be Coors Field, but this Toronto Blue Jays offense could still struggle tonight in the altitude.

First off are the injuries, as All-Star shortstop Bo Bichette is on the IL and so is third baseman Matt Chapman. Additionally, Brandon Belt missed the last game with a back issue and is also in jeopardy of missing tonight. Those are three massive bats to be missing and leave the Jays with minor-leaguers Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement, and Mason McCoy all possibly starting tonight.

It’s a weak and underperforming lineup having to make the trip to the thin air of Denver, which is one that this AL East club doesn’t make often. Pitches travel differently up in the altitude of Coors Field, and batters can take time to adjust to the conditions. There’s a term for this and it’s called visual memory index. Hitters’ eyes can cheat them a little as they’re expecting more movement from certain pitches, but it doesn’t always come.

The Jays are one of the best Under teams in baseball with a 57% Under rate and the Colorado Rockies offense has been one of the worst over the last 30 days. Hyun-jin Ryu might be pitching better than expected but the Jays have a rested bullpen and the lefty starter is likely penciled in for just 15 outs either way.

Considering the Braves had a closing total of 12.5 in their recent games vs. the Rockies, the 12.5 total tonight might be a little high considering both the state of the Toronto offense and how poor this Colorado offense has been at the plate.

Chris Flexen has pitched decently at Coors over a small sample and got through 18 outs in two of his most recent starts. Although the Rockies bullpen is nothing to write home about, 12.5 is still a big number, especially considering the Jays are playing their first game here since 2019.

My best bet: Under 12.5 (-120 at SIA)

Blue Jays vs Rockies same-game parlay

Under 12.5
Rockies first five innings +0.5
Ryu Over 0.5 walks

Ryu Over 3.5 strikeouts

Ryu projects for Over 1.00 walks and has recorded at least one free pass in four of his five starts this season. He has also been striking out batters at a surprising rate with 20 punchouts over 24 innings of work. This bodes well for the left-hander as the Rockies had a league-high 28.5% K% in the month of August.

The injuries to the Jays have not only hurt them offensively, but they are also without the entire left side of the infield since both Bichette and Chapman are injured. Colorado could very well lead this one after five innings.

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.

Blue Jays vs Rockies moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Blue Jays finished August with a 14-13 record, averaging just 4.44 runs per game despite sitting in the top half of the league in wRC+ and wOBA. The Jays continue to struggle at scoring with runners in scoring position — but with a .304 BABIP with RISP on the season, it’s likely a trend to continue, especially with the injuries piling up.

Toronto opened as a -180 road favorite and has taken some money, moving that moneyline to -190. By comparison, the Braves were -235 favorites in Colorado on Wednesday.

On the season, the Jays are 18-15 straight up as a road favorite and 5-3 SU as a -150 or shorter road chalk.

Ryu has pitched exceptionally in his return to the rotation, sporting a respectable 3.85 FIP. Meanwhile, Flexen is not a pitcher I love to back, but he sets up nicely tonight as a +170 dog facing an undermanned and underperforming Toronto lineup that is struggling at the dish.

However, due to the Rockies’ league-worst bullpen (7.09 ERA over the last 30 days), bettors looking to fade the Jays might want to do so on the F5 ML or the +0.5 F5 RL.

As for the total, it opened at 12 and has hit 12.5 at most books as of this afternoon. Dealing with the big totals of Coors is never easy for bettors who usually stay away, but the Rockies are an even 32-32 O/U at home this year while the Jays have been the fourth-best Under team in baseball this season.

Considering the Braves had 12.5 closing totals and have an infinitely better offense than Toronto, the Under is in play for me at 12.5 (at -120 or better).

The Jays had the day off yesterday, so the bullpen has no limitations tonight. With a tight playoff race currently going on in the AL, John Schneider is not going to wait around to see things get worse before he makes the call to the pen.

Bet with one of Canada’s best

Looking to bet on some Jays action? Join Sports Interaction, the best in Canada for new bettors.

Trend to know

Toronto has hit the team rotal Under in 69 of its last 118 games (+15.84 Units / 12% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Rockies

Blue Jays vs Rockies game info

Starting pitchers

Hyun-jin Ryu (3-1, 2.25 ERA): Ryu is making his sixth start and carries a 20:5 K:BB rate over 24 innings and an impressive 30% CSW rate. He has yet to record more than 15 outs but has been efficient, and the Jays are 4-1 SU when he starts. Tonight, THE BAT is projecting 81 pitches, 14.3 outs, 4.08 strikeouts, and 3.13 earned runs from the veteran southpaw.

Chris Flexen (1-6, 6.94 ERA): Flexen is making his seventh start with the Rockies and has pitched to a 5.87 ERA (6.00 FIP) over that stretch with a 28:10 K:BB rate over 30-plus innings. The Rockies have won just two of his six starts, and Flexen has one of the worst HR/FB rates at 22.1%. THE BAT is projecting 76 pitches, 12.8 outs, 2.58 strikeouts, and 3.64 earned runs from the right-hander this evening.