Boylesports Grand Sefton Handicap Chase: preview and 9-1 tip
Waterlogged areas on the Grand National course mean the Boylesports Grand Sefton Handicap Chase at Saturday must pass an inspection on Friday morning. The going stick reading is 2.7 and you don’t often see measures as low as that.
If the race does get the green light, then it goes without saying that we are going to need a horse who copes well with deep ground and is a strong stayer at the trip. If they have a light weight, then so much the better. The one who fits the bill is HALF SHOT, a hugely likeable nine-year-old trained by Iain Jardine who ticks all the above boxes and is set to shoulder 10st 5lb.
He’s won only three of his 27 races (four from 34 if you include his point-to-point runs) and his only previous win over fences came in a modest race at Sedgefield off a mark of only 107. But don’t be fooled into thinking he’s a bread-and-butter horse who merely routinely makes up the numbers. He was in in the form of his life last season when the only time he didn’t win, or make the frame, was when a non-staying seventh from 7lb out of the handicap in the Scottish Grand National at Ayr in April.
The previous month, he had been touched off by the thriving Bill Baxter over the Grand Sefton trip at Kelso. They pulled 17 lengths clear after a great tussle and the winner franked the form by following up in the Topham off a 5lb higher mark.
The strong travelling Half Shot has a most willing attitude and, a sound jumper, appeals as the type to take to Aintree’s challenges. Fitness won’t be an issue, either, after he was touched off by Destiny Is All back at Kelso (3m 2f) on his return last month. Double-figure digits have been snapped up but Sky bet still offer 9-1.
Six of the 11 runners in the race have previous experience of the Grand National fences and most of them are prominent in the betting. “The Aintree Factor” is not what it once was and horses who have performed well there in the past are generally overbet. And, of course, some don’t take to the spruce obstacles a second or third time.
In betting order, the sextet on Saturday who will be familiar with the fences are Gesskille, Fantastic Lady, Born By The Sea, Coopers Cross, Percussion and Minella Trump.
Gesskille would have won last year’s renewal in another stride – he was beaten a nose by Al Dancer – and then chased home Ashtown Lad in the Becher Chase the following month. His season fizzled out after those fine efforts, including when never getting competitive in the Topham in April.
Having had a break, he got back to winning ways at Auteuil in June (his fifth win in France, where he began his career) and, just 1lb higher in the ratings than in the Becher, the seven-year-old is clearly weighted to give another bold show.
Underfoot conditions will be much softer than 12 months ago and that should be in his favour given his stamina reserves. It’s already been a good work for his trainers - Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero – after the exciting chasing debut of Iroko at Warwick on Tuesday and they’ve hit the target with four of their past nine runners.
The only negative I can find is that Gesskille usually loiters out the back before moving through the field. That can bring its own form of excitement if you’ve had a punt on him but can also invite misfortune. All in all, he’s the right favourite, albeit odds of 100-30 look tight.
Fantastic Lady, a best-priced 11-2, illustrates that horses can have contrasting fortunes over the National fences. She exited at the first in the 2022 Topham, only to return a year later beat all bar Bill Baxter.
Nicky Henderson’s mare also ran well at Sandown a couple of weeks later, but she’s got 12st to hump here (compared to a nice racing weight of 10st 12lb in the latest Topham) and lacks a recent run. Her powerful yard has been having its share of winners but, with plenty of soft ground around, plenty of the stable’s horses have been shaping as if just in need of a run with 13 of the past 28 beaten at 11-4 or shorter.
Born By The Sea excelled in finishing sixth in the Grand National, when racing from 6lb out of the handicap. He went off at 50/1 that day but I wouldn’t have entertained him at 500/1 given his previous efforts that winter. Any new fans he required that day have subsequently had little to shout about and, even if revived, it’s doubtful he will have the gears to be competitive over this much shorter trip. At a general 7-1, he's not for me.
The prolific Minella Trump predictably didn’t get home in the National after showing up well for a long way. His stable remains fairly quiet and he seems suited by better ground.
Coopers Cross is much more interesting as last season’s Sky Bet Chase winner was moving well, stalking the leaders, when falling four out in the Topham in April. He had no chance of staying on his feet that day, basically being taken out by an errant rival who dived across him.
We will never know what would have happened but he surely would have gone close because just eight days later he ran a blinder to be runner-up to Kitty’s Light in the Scottish National. He’s only 3lb higher, even though the remarkable winner went on to land the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown. The eight-year-old lacks a recent run but was most impressive when winning first time out on soft ground at Carlisle last season. The 8-1 offered by bet365 warrants a second look.
Like Gesskille, Percussion ran well to be placed in both the Grand Sefton and Becher last term. He kept on well each time and gets a handy pull in the weights but I’m not sure heavy ground is what he wants (was a fortunate winner in the mud at Fontwell on one occasion when rated much lower). That said, it's difficult to see how he is 10-1 when Gesskille is only 100-30.
Of the others, Nassalam still has time on his side but ended the season with disappointing spins at the Festival meetings. Frero Banbou, third in the 2021 Grand Annual, has slipped to a handy mark but is not sure to get home.
HOW TO BET £20 ON THE GRAND SEFTON
Half Shot £4 win and £4.50 each-way at 9-1 with Sky Bet (four places)
Coopers Cross £3.50 each-way at 8-1 with bet365
