Browns vs. Jets prediction: NFL odds, player props, picks
Joe Flacco welcomes his former team, the New York Jets, to Cleveland for a prime-time bout on Thursday.
Funny enough, his last win as a Jet came against the Browns.
A 66-yard touchdown pass to Corey Davis, a converted onside kick and a go-ahead touchdown to Garrett Wilson — all in the final two minutes — capped off a 14-point comeback in Week 2 of 2022.
A year later, he is back off the couch and under center for Cleveland with a chance to clinch a playoff berth at home.
The Browns and Jets represent two of the best defenses in the NFL. By every metric, the Browns are dominant.
It’s why they’re 10-5 despite starting a carousel of quarterbacks and eventually landing on the veteran Flacco. The Jets’ defense should not be taken lightly either.
Rather than focusing on a side in this matchup, there is a player prop that remains too low in the current market — Wilson’s yardage line, which sits at just 47.5!
That feels criminally low for the Jets’ WR1 despite the challenge the dominant Cleveland defense presents.
Wilson has cleared this number in 11 of his last 14 games.
Despite the Jets changing quarterbacks nearly every week — or so it seems — Wilson has remained consistent.
What was most promising in last week’s win over Washington was the 15 targets he received from Trevor Siemian, who was making his first start against the Commanders.
For Siemian to find success, it’ll come by funneling the ball to his best players.
That means Breece Hall and Wilson. We should see another double-digit target game for Wilson in what should be a pass-heavy game script.
And for what it’s worth, our Action Network projections currently have this prop closer to 60 yards.
Despite ranking No. 1 against WR1s, the Browns have struggled to hold that position under 50 yards.
Take away last weeks’ disaster against Houston and you see D.J. Moore (52 yards), Calvin Ridley (53) and Courtland Sutton (61) all eclipse this.
Even Puka Nacua (105) hit the century mark.
Wilson should find himself in one-on-one coverage often on Thursday night.
The Browns run man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, just shy of 50 percent of the time.
There is no other Jets receiver above a 0.77 Y/RR rate than Wilson, who is at 1.33.
He also has more than double the targets than any other player on the Jets in man coverage.
When it comes to raw PFF separation, few receivers in the entire NFL have a better grade than Wilson.
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He’s just struggled at times because of the inconsistent quarterback play.
But with Zach Wilson (concussion) out, Siemian has the keys to the offense for the second straight week.
He shouldn’t have to worry about being benched midway through, which has long been a concern for every Jets quarterback every week.
Back Garrett Wilson as his rapport with Siemian continues to grow.
This number of 47.5 is just too low; I would back the prop to 50.
If the Jets have any chance at pulling an upset against this stout Browns defense, it comes through funneling the ball to Wilson.
It’s going to be an ugly Thursday night game, but I would put my trust in the hands of a consistent No. 1 like Wilson, who is just 42 yards short of 1,000 for the season.
