Cheltenham Festival 2023 Timefigure Preview: Day Four

Graeme North previews the final day of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival from a Timefigure perspective and has a couple of selections.

Every now and again during a jumps season you see a performance that you know intuitively has just showcased a top-class horse. It might be a dominant front-running performance that blew the opposition out of the water – the Irish chase debuts of Chacun Pour Soi and Energumene readily come to mind – or it might have been an instant burst of acceleration that very quickly left the opposition trailing, such as that displayed by Constitution Hill on his debut at Sandown last season or Impaire Et Passe on his Irish debut at Naas in December.

I had intended to make the bearer of one of two other lightbulb performances this season, Ferns Lock - undoubtedly the outstanding hunter chaser around right now - the centrepiece of this column, but sadly for those of us who backed him at 25/1 for the Hunters’ Chase after his Fairyhouse win last November his trainer, David Christie, who saddles Timeform’s top-rated horse in the race Vaucelet, pretty much all but ruled him out for Cheltenham and indeed opted to take the easy option and run him at Gowran Park last weekend where he never came off the bridle and coasted home at odds of 1/4.

Those are the perils of ante-post betting, of course, but fortunately the other one is taking his chance on Friday and that horse is Corbetts Cross in the Albert Bartlett.

I’ve read and heard in several Cheltenham previews over the past week or so that the Albert Bartlett is a particularly deep race this year. I’m not sure I agree with that. Yes, it’s deep in terms of numbers with 20 set to go to post - which will be the biggest field since Minella Indo won in 2019 if all the runners stand their ground - but looking through the runners other than Three Card Brag and Affordale Fury perhaps, I’m struggling to find another who would have been a leading contender in any of the other races for novices. Moreover, the manner in which leading British male novices over hurdles have been made to look third-rate this week suggest that the seven who are set to fly the domestic flag can readily be discounted.

Corbetts Cross has such a clear advantage on time – 7lb over next best Three Card Brag, who is himself a further 5lb clear of Letsbeclearaboutit and Stay Away Fay – that I find it rather surprising that’s he’s not even shorter in the betting.

Three Card Brag has won two races this season and pushed Supreme fourth Inthepocket close over two and a half miles in a Grade 3 at Navan in December, staying on strongly at the end of a race that had an extended run-in because of omitted flights. There’s every chance he’ll improve tackling three miles for the first time but it’s a slight concern how he’ll react to the hurly burly here having done all his racing in very small fields.

Minella Indo’s in-form trainer Henry de Bromhead is double handed with one-time favourite Hiddenvalley Lake and Monty’s Star but their finishing splits on the back of a slow overall time when fighting out the finish of a race at Clonmel last time were underwhelming and I’d be inclined to think they won’t be quite good enough. Certainly, neither could hold a candle to Corbetts Cross at two miles, the big drop back in trip proving no inconvenience to my selection last time as he ran a 142 timefigure in beating the highly-touted Found A Fifty in a Grade 2, and I doubt either could have pulled away from the last over three miles in as devastating fashion as he did off a mark of 130 in the mud at Fairyhouse in January.

If there is a concern about him it’s that the 19-day turnaround since his last run might be plenty quick enough, but his new owner wouldn’t have sent him had he not been happy and I’m looking forward to him greatly.

If Irish second-rater Nusret can come over here and win the Adonis Hurdle, the last recognised domestic trial for the JCB Triumph Hurdle, then the home team really don’t have much chance in the opener and indeed only field three candidates.

The Timeform Pace Forecast is very strong, which might not suit Lossiemouth who has looked more speed than stamina so far, settling two steadily-run races with a turn of foot, and in any case there’s a bit too much discrepancy between her price and that of Gala Marceau who beat her at the Dublin Racing Festival. Blood Destiny is top on time to the tune of 4lb courtesy of his win in a conditions juvenile hurdle at Fairyhouse where he had Nusret over 18 lengths back in third, but, though he sets the standard, a 130 timefigure isn’t insurmountable and I can leave him alone at 2/1.

I’ll leave the handicaps and the Hunter Chase to others and stick with the Gold Cup for my final selection where I’m not sure Galopin des Champs should be so short in the betting. Of course, he would be unbeaten in his last eight races had he not fallen at the last fence in the 2022 Turners but a defeat of a head-high Bob Olinger who had to be rousted heavily just to finish the race doesn’t amount to much.

He’s won both his starts since, the John Durkan Memorial at Punchestown and the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown, but several weren’t ridden to any effect in the former race and the latter was full of has-beens or horses being teed up for other options. I’m not convinced, for all he has timefigures of 167 and 164 to his name, that he’s a certain stayer or that his form is bomb proof.

Protektorat, Bravemansgame, Minella Indo and A Plus Tard have all recorded higher timefigures than Galopin des Champs and, for all I respect the chances of left-field entry and ‘drinking horse’ Hewick and would love to see victory go to Ruth Jefferson with the admirable Sounds Russian, it’s the reigning Gold Cup champion A Plus Tard I’m most interested in.

Obviously, he ran too badly to be true when last seen in the Betfair Chase but that was a blip in an otherwise blemish-free career and his price more than compensates for any doubts there might still be concerning his well-being given his trainer Henry de Bromhead has his string running hotter than it has done all season.

A Plus Tard was touched off by Minella Indo in this race two years ago, but his rider Rachael Blackmore confessed she got the tactics wrong that day and she made amends in no uncertain fashion last year. Twice in four years her mount has put 15 lengths between himself and the rest from the final fence, and though I don’t envisage him doing that this time he’s still the one to beat at what looks a generous 11/2.

Selections:

Back Corbetts Cross in the 14:50 Cheltenham at 7/2
Back A Plus Tard in the 15:30 Cheltenham at 11/2