Cheltenham Festival timefigure analysis as Gerri Colombe rated an unlucky loser in Brown Advisory
Crowds might have been down for reasons including high entrance and parking prices, steeply increased rail fares on top of a train strike as well as the counter attraction five weeks earlier of the much more affordable Dublin Racing Festival, but at least the action on the track at Cheltenham for the most part lived up to expectations.
Tuesday started on ground that was officially soft, a view that Timeform concurred with. Underfoot conditions were a fair bit slower than the corresponding day in 2022 according to the allowances Timeform uses to determine the going with the hurdles track riding slower than the chase course.
The outstanding time performance on the opening day came not from the two most popular (I presume) winners, Constitution Hill or Honeysuckle, but from El Fabiolo who stepped up markedly on the race-leading 156 timefigure he posted in the Irish Arkle at the Dublin Racing Festival to post a 169 in the Sporting Life Arkle.
He would have confirmed Leopardstown form comfortably with Dysart Dynamo had the latter not fallen late on for the second year running, and he had too many gears for Jonbon who still managed to turn in his best effort on the clock (160) despite never seeming entirely comfortable with the gallop.
Corach Rambler posted a smart 144 timefigure when getting the better of a couple of graded-calibre novices Fastorslow and Monbeg Genius to land a high-quality (much better than 2022) Ultima for the second year in succession, but Gaillard du Mesnil made very hard work of what had looked a straightforward task in the National Hunt Chase, coming off a steady pace to score in a lowly 118 timefigure, with Mahler Mission’s fall two out potentially sparing his rider’s blushes.
To no-one’s great surprise, Constitution Hill won the Unibet Champion Hurdle with ease. There had been much talk beforehand that he might run an all-time high Timeform hurdle rating, but the field collectively wasn’t anywhere near good enough to get him out of second gear, reflected by the unusually wide nine-length winning margin for the race. A 162 timefigure, achieved after coasting home following an incredible leap at the last, is getting on for a stone or more below what he is capable of running.
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The idea was floated over the weekend that Constitution Hill might yet have a spin on the Flat, something that would spark enormous interest should he still be unbeaten at the time. However, the modus operandi for the yard - if not necessarily the owner - in recent years has been to take a very conservative approach with their better horses and I’d expect to see him over hurdles for another season, in the same races he has run in this term.
That said, I wouldn’t have expected this time last year to see Honeysuckle line up in the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle. A couple of defeats this season have knocked her reputation a bit, but on form she seemed to run as well as she has since she won the Irish Champion Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival in 2022.
I say seemed as the Mares’ was a very tactical affair – her winning timefigure was a lowly 110 – and her Champion Hurdle winning speed came to the rescue under a very astute ride in a race in which those held up further back had next to no chance of getting involved as she ran the final half-mile getting on for seven lengths faster than Constitution Hill.
Other than perhaps Risk Belle, who seemed to make her move too soon from the back in the Fred Winter and ended up third after hitting the front, what you saw was generally what you got on the first day and there didn’t look any excuses for runner-up Facile Vega in the Sky Bet Supreme.
A 156 winning timefigure for Marine Nationale is third only in the race behind Constitution Hill’s 178 and Appreciate It’s 157 in a deeper renewal than several of late and he was well on top come the line. Facile Vega ran right up to his best on the clock, a 151 timefigure the same as he registered at Leopardstown over Christmas, but unlike the winner he looks a bare two-miler to me for the time being.
Wednesday’s card began on ground not dissimilar to Tuesday and the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle produced to my mind an outstanding winner of the race in Impaire et Passe.
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His 149 winning timefigure isn’t the best in the race – that honour remains split between one-time top-notch prospects but ultimately disappointing pair Bob Olinger and Samcro – but he never looked in any danger of defeat as he purred round on the bridle, and the instant acceleration he showed to pull 25 lengths clear before being eased on his Irish debut at Naas in December was on display again as stormed clear in an instant turning for home.
That 149 timefigure gets upgraded to 159 once sectionals are incorporated and even then I doubt that scratches the surface of his ability. He had far too much speed for his rivals, most of whom had been campaigned over longer trips than he has been. Surely he’ll be his stable’s number one should he head to the Champion Hurdle next year.
The two feature chases on Wednesday, the Queen Mother Champion Chase and the Brown Advisory, were won by Energumene and The Real Whacker in timefigures of 173 and 155, upgraded to 179 and 159 respectively after upgrades are incorporated.
The Champion was contested at a much stronger pace than the recent rescheduled Clarence House with Editeur du Gite not allowed a breather out in front this time, and that suited the stamina-laden Energumene who has winning form at two and a half miles, don’t forget, and a raft of 170+ timefigures to his name.
Fairytale it might have been, but The Real Whacker, all out to hold on in the Brown Advisory, struck me as a rather fortunate winner. Poor efforts from Thyme Hill and Sir Gerhard left the nippy Dipper winner with less to beat than seemed likely beforehand and then the tight course counted strongly against Gerri Colombe. He ran the last furlong five lengths faster than the winner and would have won convincingly I reckon had the race taken place on the New Course - he strikes me as the better prospect for the Gold Cup.
Despite the New Course clearly being dolled out, as it traditionally is on the Thursday, no official rail movements were made public and even more disappointingly Friday’s rail movements were only communicated by the Clerk of the Course Jon Pullin after the first race had been run. That’s not good enough from Britain’s leading National Hunt venue. Friday’s timefigures were calculated using the official added yardage and Thursday’s were calculated using the added yardage normally expected from the rail being six yards out as it traditionally is on the third day of the meeting.
There wasn’t a standout performance on the clock on Thursday, a day that was overshadowed by the other three in terms of absolute quality. I wouldn’t stop anyone arguing that the Ryanair Chase and not the Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle was the main event, or vice versa, but there wasn’t much between them on the clock with Envoi Allen winning the former in a 160 timefigure and Sire Du Berlais - like Envoi Allen also winning for the third time at the Festival but for the first time in Grade 1 company - scoring in 157.
Envoi Allen improved a little on his best previous timefigure (157, in the Champion Chase at the 2022 Punchestown Festival) in getting the better of an error-prone and below-form Shishkin, who along with Ga Law ran the final furlong faster than the winner according to Course Track. But his win is more a nod to the brilliance of Energumene who beat him 14 lengths in that Champion Chase at Punchestown and who would surely have won the Ryanair had he turned up in that.
Sire du Berlais’ 156 isn’t quite a career best having run a 160 when beaten by Flooring Porter in the 2021 Stayers’. The winning timefigure suggests the race was well up to standard but several of his rivals came into it on the back of less-than-smooth preparations and it could be that a couple of them weren’t at their best.
Stage Star (140) was the recipient of a very well-judged front-running ride in the Turners Novices' Chase, not even needing to reproduce his best timefigure (149) to pinch the race from the front. Mighty Potter wasn’t helped by being ridden more conservatively than he has been and was done for toe, so, with Appreciate It hanging his chance away badly as if something was amiss, the form has a shaky look to it.
Undoubtedly the unluckiest loser of the afternoon, sadly so too in a race named in remembrance of the trainer's late son, was Magical Zoe in the Jack de Bromhead Mares’ Novices' Hurdle. You Wear It Well deserves some credit for making all against 20 rivals but to put it bluntly Magical Zoe was dropped out too far behind. She ran each of the last three furlongs faster than the winner despite also getting hampered when slipping on landing two out and internal Timeform upgrades have her winning by several lengths; third home Halka du Tabert also ran each of the last three furlongs faster than the winner and wasn’t ridden close enough for one who’ll relish an extra half mile.
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So, to Gold Cup Day on ground that was only marginally slower than what prevailed on Thursday. The feature event was a humdinger of a race and a 179 timefigure from Galopin Des Champs edges out the 178 A Plus Tard posted in 2022.
It’s a shame we were denied a possible head-to-head between them after A Plus Tard was badly hampered by the spills of Ahoy Senor and Sound Russian six from home. Galopin Des Champs deserves his place at the head of the staying chase division for now, though A Plus Tard might have something to say about that should he come over for the Betfair Bowl where he could lock horns again with Gold Cup runner-up Bravemansgame whose excellent-jumping second was as good a performance on the clock (172) as his win in the King George.
If there was a performance to take from the race going forward, however, it was surely Noble Yeats’ fourth place with the Grand National in mind. He wasn’t comfortable with the pace for much of the way, understandably so given it is the strongest-run and highest-quality race he has contested, but he really found his feet late on and finished the race off far better than anything else except the winner.
On a day of great drama, Corbetts Cross had nominated himself 40 minutes earlier in the Albert Bartlett as the unfortunate loser of the week when ducking out at the final hurdle. There’s no guarantee that he would have prevailed having raced keenly all the way round – probably a result of his being dropped to two miles just 19 days previously – but he was just a neck down on the eventual winner Stay Away Fay at the time with his rider just gathering him up, and he would have had the advantage of the rail on the climb for home.
Stay Away Fay laboured up the run-in slower than the pair that chased him home, Affordale Fury (what was he doing sent off at 150/1?) and Sandor Clegane, to score in a 139 timefigure.
Earlier in the afternoon Lossiemouth readily reversed Dublin Spring Juvenile Hurdle form with Gala Marceau in the JCB Triumph Hurdle. The runner-up ran a faster final furlong according to the Course Track sectionals but didn’t enjoy the run of the race as she had at Leopardstown and, the stronger stayer of the pair, would have preferred a stronger pace (winning timefigure just 114).
The Hunter Chase was run at a very strong gallop courtesy of prolific Irish point-to-point winner Rocky’s Howya who did well to stay in contention until after the second-last. The winner Premier Magic was out on his feet passing the line, running the distance from the last fence to the post around 16 lengths slower than Galopin Des Champs according to Course Track, and slower than five others in his own race. He would have been caught in another 50 yards by runner-up Its On The Line whose performance suggested it really should have been my strong ante-post fancy Ferns Lock lining up to represent David Christie and not Vaucelet. Maybe next year.
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