Cheltenham Festival 2023 Timefigure Preview: Day Two
Graeme North previews day two of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival from a Timefigure perspective, highlighting three bets.
The second day of the modern-day Cheltenham Festival is always a difficult one from a timefigure perspective as two of the races, the Cross Country Chase and the Champion Bumper, don’t lend themselves easily to timefigure analysis.
Indeed, looking at my own-ante post positions across the week, which include multiple singles as well as a whole host of yankees and trebles, there are only two races on Wednesday - the Ballymore and the Champion Chase – in which I have a financial interest, and even then in the case of the Champion Chase only a marginal one.
The good news from the opening races on Tuesday was that the ground wasn’t as slow as feared after Monday’s rain, so we’ll proceed again on the basis the ground is good to soft.
Despite my reservations about the punter-friendliness of the card, fortunately there look to be a few bets and the first of them comes up in the opening contest, the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle, where I can’t look beyond Impaire Et Passe.
His stable-companion Gaelic Warrior heads the Timeform ratings by 3lb courtesy of his win off a mark of 143 in the usually well-contested Liffey Handicap Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival, but he controlled that slowly-run affair, contested by some exposed sorts, much as he did a minor event at Clonmel before that. His tendency to jump right will potentially cost him now, crucially, he’s set to jump more hurdles in a race than he has done to date.
The unbeaten Hermes Allen is next on Timeform ratings. Six of the ten horses that ran in the Challow and have run against since have come out and won and his trainer’s view that he’s a better fit for the Ballymore than the Albert Bartlett has to be respected for all Challow winners don’t have a great record in the Ballymore.
Good Land has impressed me the last twice, scoring last time out at the Dublin Racing Festival, but whether he’ll be quick enough dropping back in trip I’m not sure.
Champ Kiely got back on track in the Lawlor’s Of Naas Novices' Hurdle last time - a race that has thrown up recent Ballymore winners Envoi Allen and Bob Olinger - after losing his unbeaten record when held up and over-racing in the Royal Bond, the form of which was franked by Marine Nationale in the Supreme. However, he looks likely to face pace pressure on the front end and, like Gaelic Warrior, has a tendency to jump right.
Impaire Et Passe hasn’t yet recorded an outstanding overall timefigure - his best in two races in Ireland is 126 - but he has tremendous acceleration as witnessed by his 18-length surge clear of a very large field at Naas in December in the space of a couple of omitted hurdles in the straight.
A 12lb upgrade on his timefigure would have been considerably higher had that upgrade been calculated from closer to the finish, potentially taking his overall timerating well into the 150s, and a subsequent win back at a bare two miles in the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer at Punchestown was achieved with the minimum of fuss. Despite the deep field, with the step up in trip unlikely to cause an issue, he’s a confident bet to retain his unbeaten record over hurdles.
The betting for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase is dominated by Gerri Colombe and though he heads the field on time – he is 3lb clear of The Real Whacker on weight-adjusted ratings - and will be suited by the step up to three miles and any more rain, I find it hard to warm to him, especially at his current odds. If there’s a bet in the race at a bigger price, it’s surely Thyme Hill each-way at 9/1.
He hasn’t impressed everyone over fences so far, despite winning two of his three races, with some questioning his occasional ponderous jumping, but it seems to me that’s because he’s not yet run in a race over fences that’s been run at a proper gallop enabling him to get into a rhythm. I’m sure we’ll see a different Thyme Hill in the Brown Advisory on his first start under the new Phillip Hobbs & Johnson White training banner.
Admittedly he’s a bit long in the tooth for a novice chaser, but this is a very weak renewal by historical standards, and it was only a year ago that he finished second in the Stayers’ Hurdle running a 150 timefigure. That would put him in with every chance here and it’s worth remembering he has never been out of the first four in three visits to the Festival, having finished fourth in the Albert Bartlett and third in the Champion Bumper.
Sir Gerhard has similar claims to Thyme Hill on his hurdles efforts, which include a win in the 2022 Ballymore, but he might be going into this slightly undercooked having had just the one run (where he didn’t impress with his jumping) over fences after an interrupted start to the season.
Despite his defeat last time behind Editeur du Gite and Edwardstone in the rescheduled Clarence House at Cheltenham, Energumene remains the one to beat in the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase.
The Clarence House turned into something of a tactical affair and favoured the bold front-running ride given to the surprise winner Editeur Du Gite. Whether he’ll end up being given the same rope again remains to be seen, but if he is (and he might be, given just seven go to post) the outcome might not be as predictable as it would likely be in a very strongly-run race where Energumene, who has run three timefigures of 174 or higher, holds a clear advantage over Edwardstone whose best timefigure remains 160.
That leaves two handicaps and though I made a case for Third Time Lucki in an earlier Sporting Life Festival Handicapper to Follow feature - he's 4lb lower in the weights now than when sent off favourite ahead of Greaneteen in the Haldon Gold Cup even after his recent win - the ground might not be quick enough for him.
With that in mind, I’ll side with San Salvador in the Coral Cup. Beacon Edge is the one to beat on the clock if you go back far enough in a race the Irish have dominated in recent years, but San Salvador has some much better recent figures to his name. He has to race off a much higher mark here than in Ireland, along with many of his compatriots, but he was very impressive when winning a handicap at Punchestown in December by a length and three quarters from Captain Conby who takes him on again.
Neither has run since and there promises not to be much between them again, but it was hard not to be impressed by San Salvador settling the race in a matter of strides on the home turn at Punchestown before sailing clear, and the booking of 3lb claimer Richie Deegan to offset some of his rise catches the eye.
Selections
Back Impaire Et Passe in the 13:30 Cheltenham at 7/4
Back Thyme Hill each-way in the 14:10 Cheltenham at 9/1
Back San Salvador each-way in the 14:50 Cheltenham at 16/1
