Cheltenham November Meeting preview & tips
BROADWAY BOY (1.45)
From the moment I saw Mister Coffey chalked up as tissue favourite for this Listed novices’ chase, I’ve been itching to take him on. The dilemma, though, is with what?
Bar triple-figure-priced chasing debutant Cloudy Flamingo, who’s yet to even run under Rules, it’s not difficult to make a case for all of Mister Coffey’s rivals.
Nigel Twiston-Davies unhelpfully muddies the waters again by running Broadway Boy and Weveallbeencaught against one another, as he did when they chased home Flooring Porter over course and distance at the Showcase Meeting three weeks ago. The latter-named has long looked the type to make a chaser and seems sure to step forward with the benefit of that first experience of fences under his belt. The six-year-old has just over a length to find with his year younger stable-mate, and also finds himself 5lb worse off, so it’s surely debatable that he should be shorter in the betting.
BROADWAY BOY did nothing but improve over hurdles late season, rounding out a campaign which saw him win three times in seven starts with a gutsy victory in a 3m handicap on the New course in April. He’s continued that progress switched to fences this term, posting a 12lb improved Timeform figure when beating Mofasa (next-time winner) at Worcester in September on his chase debut; and bettering it again when facing what time may well show to have been an impossible task in trying to concede a penalty to a former dual Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle winner.
There’s every reason to think further progress is likely, although it would be a concern for his chances of doing so here if Cheltenham catches the upper end of the overnight rain that is currently forecast (6-12mm) and the ground turns gluey.
Good Risk At All was a smooth winner on his chase debut last month over 2m4f at Carlisle, where he had the returning Alaphilippe well held. Impressive though it was on the face of it, I think there’s risk of going overboard. Sam Thomas’ charge gave several fences plenty of air there, and I’m not convinced he would have won had Giovinco stayed upright three out, rather than part company with Stephen Mulqueen. He’s now supplanted Mister Coffey as favourite, but looks too short to me.
The Inside Word:
“My two horses have very similar profiles, very similar handicap marks and I’m as baffled as any punter as to which will run the better race. They’re both lovely horses. They weren’t beaten far at all by Flooring Porter in their last appearance together, and they weren’t far apart either. It was Weveallbeencaught’s first run of the season, so he’ll come on for that. Broadway Boy is the youngest in the field, but we know he’s got the talent to be a real player here too.” - Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer (from his William Hill blog)
ANGELS BREATH (2.20)
This year’s Paddy Power Gold Cup can be summed up in three words: Pace, pace, and more pace. The Real Whacker and Stage Star are sure to be right on the speed from the off. Notlongtillmay, Authorized Art and the still-to-be-beaten-over-fences Whistleinthedark will be hot on their tails. Il Ridoto and Unexpected Party are unlikely to be too far behind either.
If Prestbury Park is battered by its share of the wet stuff overnight, then the three-day meeting’s highlight could develop into a searching test which puts extra emphasis on a horse’s ability to jump and travel, stamina and match fitness.
The latter is a potential concern for backers of The Real Whacker and Stage Star, both of whom won Grade 1 novice events at the Festival but make their handicaps debuts here on the back of absences since the spring. It’s not impossible, but they’ll have to be properly Grade 1 class to defy hefty weights in such a hot handicap as this.
If there is one horse in this field potentially capable of blowing this race apart, to my eyes it’s ANGELS BREATH. But it’s a big if, also. His troubles with injury have been well-documented, missing more than three years before finally returning to action in January for his new trainer Sam Thomas.
He showed enough on his return to action over hurdles here three weeks ago, when he travelled through the race like the best horse but found Pinnacle Peak (ran well again here yesterday) scampering away from him up the hill having got first run, to suggest there’s still plenty of fire in his belly. What remains under the bonnet after all this time remains the chief imponderable.
We know from Angels Breath’s smart novice hurdle form in 2018-19 that he was a naturally classy type. Ditto his chase debut success at Ascot, where he swatted away First Flow with the minimum of fuss, and then subsequent Grade 2 rout at the Berkshire track before injury cruelly struck.
Thomas’ burgeoning body of work with the likes of Our Power, Al Dancer, Stolen Silver and, in particular, Iwilldoit is proof that the former Gold Cup-winning jockey possesses a Midas touch for nurturing chasers back to form and fitness. But he will top all of his previous training achievements if he pulls off a similar trick with a horse rising ten, and with Angels Breath’s back story. A mark of 144 could yet be lenient if…
The Inside Word:
“I was absolutely thrilled with Angels Breath’s last run over hurdles and he’s come out of it well. I’d like to think he’s taken a step forward for it, although we usually have ours pretty fit for their first runs of the season. We just had to work out what route to take, as we also had him entered in the three-mile handicap hurdle at Haydock next Saturday. He’s nine now, soon to be ten, so I thought it was a case of now or never to go for a race like this. It’s a very hot renewal, but he seems in really good form.” - Sam Thomas, trainer
SPRINGWELL BAY (3.30)
Who knows whether Springwell Bay will turn out to be more Holywell than Black Jack Ketchum. Or if he’ll even turn out to be remotely as talented as either of those two Jonjo O’Neill-trained warriors who have given owner Gaye Smith some huge days at Cheltenham through the years.
SPRINGWELL BAY may well provide another. He’s already proven himself a useful sort, winning three times over hurdles, and with his only defeats coming when tackling Grade 1 or 2 company. While those reverses suggest he is likely to fall short as a top-notcher, I’ve no doubt he’ll prove capable of making his mark now switching to handicaps from an opening perch of 137.
While his 17-length sixth to Irish Point in Aintree’s Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle may have seemed a tad disappointing at the time, the form stands up. He finished narrowly ahead of Crambo, a comfortable winner of a competitive Ascot handicap last month on his first start since then; and on the heels of Letsbeclearaboutit and Your Wear It Well, who’ve both more than done their bit to gild it.
Springwell Bay is the only runner in this line-up who lacks a recent run, which is a slight concern. The market will guide in that regard and, assuming the vibes don’t scream it’s badly needed, his relative class could see him through, especially with the strong pace forecast by Timeform likely to suit this smooth traveller ideally.
The Inside Word:
“Springwell Bay looked good last season when we stepped him up in trip to two-and-a-half miles, winning at Ascot and Wetherby. What happened at Aintree was just unfortunate. One of Willie Mullins’ fell right in front of us and we nearly got brought down. It was too far out to say what would have happened, but I felt our chance was gone after that. An intermediate handicap like this is a nice starting point for his season. He’s got top-weight but he deserves it. Hopefully this will tell us which way to go with him this season.” - Jonjo O’Neill Jr, jockey
ELLE PERFECTA (1.45)
Protektorat, More Of That, Tacquin Du Seuil, Finian’s Oscar, Champagne West, O O Seven. All high-class winners of this race over the last decade in what few could argue is anything but a stellar roll of honour for this race in its former guise. Since it was converted to a handicap last year, though. chances are we’re unlikely to see genuine Turners and Brown Advisory contenders using it as a stepping stone to a return in March.
It could still pay to know your Es Perfectos from your Elle Perfectas. While the former, a brother to the useful No Ordinary Joe, makes a belated chasing debut for Alan King, it’s the latter who piques my interest as a betting proposition (at around 7/1) against the trio currently jostling for position at the top of the market.
A fair hurdler, ELLE PERFECTA has posted two improved efforts since being switched to fences by Colm Murphy. The seven-year-old readily outpointed a then 126-rated rival (who she was also conceding 7lb to) when making a successful chase debut at Kilbeggan in April; then acquitted herself well in Grade 3 company at Galway in August over an inadequate trip. On both occasions she impressed with a slick jumping technique.
I’ll be honest, I’ve no idea how she’ll cope with genuinely soft ground. As a daughter of Shirocco (German Derby winner on heavy), we can only hope that she will.
It’s particularly intriguing that her shrewd trainer is sending her across the water for this race when he’d have no shortage of similar options at home. With the halcyon era Brave Inca and Big Zeb long since passed, Murphy is an infrequent visitor to these shores these days. Yet the likes of Empire Of Dirt (2016 Plate) and Impervious (2023 Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase) serve as recent reminders of the Wexford wonder’s enduring ability to ready one for a big day, especially at the home of British jumps racing.
The Inside Word:
“We’re very happy with her, she’s made good progress over fences. She’s won on good and good-to-yielding here, so hopefully they won’t have too much more rain in Cheltenham. If they don’t, we’re hopeful of a good run. She’s a good jumper and a strong traveller, so I hope there’ll be a bit of pace on, too.” - Colm Murphy, trainer
ROSE OF ARCADIA (2.20)
In the age of the post-racing pop concert (def: old-fashioned term for the modern-day gig), Billy Ocean would have been an appropriate choice for Cheltenham this weekend. Because when the going gets tough - which invariably it will at the end of almost three-and-a-half miles in Sunday’s Jewson Handicap Chase - only the toughest will still be going.
There’s arguably no better runner in this line-up better equipped to cope with a slog in the mud than ROSE OF ARCADIA. After a slow start to her career (bought for £170,000 shortly after winning her sole start in a point-to-point), this eight-year-old is now making up for lost time. She’s won all three of her previous starts over 3m2f-plus, so the extra yardage of today’s test seems sure to suit; and her record under Rules on ground officially described as either soft or heavy is an impressive 11212.
A spin over hurdles at Newton Abbot a month, which she won a shade more comfortably than the neck margin suggests, was a canny move by Joe Tizzard, as it was presumably designed to get her cherry ripe for this, while knowing it wouldn’t affect her chase mark.
With ticks in many of the right boxes, including the continuing good form of the Tizzard yard, I suspect what’s left of the double-figure prices won't hang around for much longer.
The Inside Word:
“Rose Of Arcadia has run well here before and, although this looks a decent contest, she’s entitled to take her chance off this mark. She stays well, so we know she’ll be doing her best work at the finish, and she’s been a cracking mare for us. She comes here fit off the back of a Newton Abbot win and deserves this crack at a big prize.” - Joe Tizzard, trainer & Coral ambassador
L’EAU DU SUD (3.30)
If it’s an original, leftfield selection you’re after for the Greatwood Hurdle, then Lookaway now. Neil King’s future chaser did me a nice turn when landing a Grade 2 novice event at last month’s Showcase Meeting under a fine ride off the front by Jack Quinlan, but I’m not sure if he’ll have the big-field know-how to dominate a bunch a seasoned hurdlers on his handicap debut in this scenario.
Dan Skelton is often the go-to starting point for punters in these big 2m handicaps around Cheltenham. And no wonder. Faivor’s win in last season’s County Hurdle was his fourth in the last eight years of that Festival contest. He’s also won this race twice, with North Hill Harvey in 2016 and West Cork two years ago.
Knickerbockerglory won’t lack for backers here following a smooth success at Ascot under 5lb claimer Tristan Durrell earlier this month. But L’EAU DU SUD is the Skelton runner I’ve had in mind for this race pretty much since last spring. Twice a winner on testing ground in France, where he always ran in a tongue-strap and hood combo, the five-year-old was given only three runs in a light first campaign on these shores.
After leaving the tongue tie off for his stable debut, Skelton popped it back for L’Eau Du Sud’s subsequent runs at Kempton and in Kelso’s Morebattle Hurdle. He moved through both of those with purpose, only to not quite find as much when let down as seemed likely. If that was a sign of a horse who needed his wind tweaked, then it looks highly significant to me that Skelton waited until this summer to book him in for that procedure, presumably with this very target in mind.
The trainer produced North Hill Harvey and West Cork to win this prize on their first runs of the season (or first in two seasons in the case of West Cork), while Ch’tibello was having his first start since a wind op when he carried off the County under L’Eau Du Sud’s jockey, wee brother Harry, in 2019.
Top on Timeform ratings but with the prospect of more to come following wind surgery, I’m not the least bit surprised to see L’Eau Du Sud backed into second-favourite behind the Willie Mullins debuting Onlyamatteroftime.
Pick of the bigger prices is Fergal O’Brien’s Punctuation, who was progressive last season and limbered up for this with an eye-catching Flat win on soft ground at York a month ago.
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