Chiefs vs. Lions odds, line, spread, predictions: 2023 NFL Kickoff Game picks by top model on 163-113 run
The Detroit Lions showed dramatic improvement in Dan Campbell's second year as head coach and now have their sights set on winning their first division title in 31 years. The quest begins on Thursday, September 7, when the Lions visit the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in the 2023 NFL Kickoff Game. Detroit, which hasn't won its division since its first-place finish in the NFC Central in 1993, went 3-13-1 in Campbell's first season at the helm. It lost six of its first seven contests last year before going 8-2 the rest of the way and finishing second in the NFC North. Kansas City (14-3) is coming off its seventh straight AFC West title and second Super Bowl championship in four seasons.
Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Kansas City is a 6.5-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Lions odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 54. Before locking in any Lions vs. Chiefs picks, make sure to .
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 163-113 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It also is on a 17-6 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has simulated Chiefs vs. Lions 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Lions vs. Chiefs:
- Chiefs vs. Lions spread: Kansas City -6.5
- Chiefs vs. Lions over/under: 54 points
- Chiefs vs. Lions money line: Kansas City -286, Detroit +230
- KC: Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in an NFL-record seven straight season-openers
- DET: Lions have lost seven consecutive meetings with defending Super Bowl champions
- Chiefs vs. Lions picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Chiefs can cover
Patrick Mahomes has been the star of the NFL since becoming Kansas City's starting quarterback in 2018, leading the team to five consecutive AFC Championship Game appearances, three Super Bowl berths and a pair of titles. The 27-year-old was the MVP of the regular season and Super Bowl last year, marking the second time he captured both awards. Mahomes led the league with a career-high 5,250 passing yards in 2022 and made 41 touchdown tosses to finish first for the second time.
Mahomes has dominated NFC opponents, winning 16 consecutive regular-season meetings since the Chiefs dropped a 38-31 decision at Seattle in Week 16 of the 2018 campaign. He also has excelled in the month of September, as he has thrown 49 touchdown passes and only four interceptions while guiding Kansas City to a 13-3 record. Mahomes has amassed the most passing yards (24,241) and TD tosses (192) through his first 80 games in NFL history and needs one scoring throw to overtake Hall-of-Famer Bob Griese for 58th place on the all-time list. See who to back at SportsLine.
Why the Lions can cover
As strong as Detroit was straight up in its final 10 games last year, it was even better against the spread. The Lions were 9-1 ATS over those contests, the best record in the NFL in that span. They covered in 12 of their 17 games overall in 2022, including all five as underdogs.
Detroit was tied for 28th in the league last year with an average of 25.1 points allowed, but was much better defensively down the stretch. After giving up at least 24 points in each of its first seven contests, the club held opponents under 20 in six of its final 10 outings. The Lions were tied for fourth in the NFL in 2022 with a plus-seven turnover differential and featured a strong duo on the defensive line in Aidan Hutchinson and James Houston, who ranked first and second among rookies in sacks with 9.5 and eight, respectively. See who to back at SportsLine.
How to make Chiefs vs. Lions picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Under the total, projecting the teams combine for 53 points. The model also says one side of the spread cashes in almost 60% of simulations. Head to SportsLine to see its NFL picks.
