NFL odds, lines, picks, spreads, predictions, matchups, 2024 Divisional Round schedule: Model backing Bills
After opening his postseason career with 15 straight home or neutral-site games, Patrick Mahomes will make his first venture into opponent territory during the Divisional Round NFL schedule. Mahomes and the Chiefs will visit Josh Allen and the Bills on Sunday as 2.5-point underdogs according to the latest Divisional Round NFL odds. That makes Mahomes an underdog in the postseason for just the second time in his career, following an outright win in that scenario in last year's Super Bowl.
These teams have already played five times since January 2021, all in Kansas City. The against the spread results and straight-up outcomes have mirrored each other with the Chiefs going 2-3. How will Mahomes respond in unfamiliar territory and against a rolling Bills squad that's won six straight? Which team covers one of the slimmest NFL spreads of the week? All of the Divisional Round NFL lines are listed below and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Divisional Round NFL picks now.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs on on an incredible 183-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 37-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season and has nailed seven straight top-rated picks entering the 2024 NFL playoffs.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Divisional Round 2024 NFL odds and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.
Top Divisional Round NFL predictions
One of the model's strongest Divisional Round NFL picks is that the Bills (-2.5) cover the spread at home versus the Chiefs on Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET. The prolific Chiefs offense of the past is simply that -- in the past. Mahomes has multiple touchdown passes in just one of his last six games, and he's had more TDs than INTs in only two of his last six. Kansas City never ranked worse than sixth in scoring every season from 2017 to 2022, but it has dropped all the way to 15th in points per game in 2023.
It should be a struggle for Kansas City to keep up with a Bills offense which has incredible balance. It ranks in the top eight in both rushing and passing, as well as third-down efficiency and redzone scoring. Josh Allen is also discernibly better at home than on the road with an 18:7 TD-INT in home games, compared to 11-11 in road contests. The model projects Allen to have another prolific day with both his arm and legs, with him accounting for more total touchdowns than Mahomes. Winning the quarterback battle has Buffalo also winning against the spread in well over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.
How to make Divisional Round NFL picks
The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Divisional Round NFL schedule, and it's also revealed two coveted A-rated picks. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
So which NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which A-rated picks should you make right now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000 since its inception, and find out.
Divisional Round NFL odds, spreads, lines, schedule
Saturday, Jan. 20
Texans at Ravens (-9, 43.5)
Packers at 49ers (-9.5, 50.5)
Sunday, Jan. 21
Buccaneers at Lions (-6.5, 48.5)
