Cowboys vs. 49ers prediction, odds, line, spread: Sunday Night Football picks by model on 168-118 roll

Two teams with Super Bowl aspirations will collide when the San Francisco 49ers host the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football at Levi's Stadium. The 49ers (4-0) are one of only two remaining undefeated teams in the league. San Francisco is coming off a 35-16 victory over the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Cowboys (3-1) bounced back from a shocking loss to Arizona with a 38-3 blowout of the Patriots. The 35-point margin of defeat was the biggest of Bill Belichick's career as a head coach.

Kickoff is at 8:20 p.m. ET. San Francisco is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Cowboys vs. 49ers odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 45. Before you make any 49ers vs. Cowboys picks or NFL predictions, you need to see the NFL betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 168-118 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 22-10 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has zeroed in on 49ers vs. Cowboys and locked in another confident against-the-spread pick. You can see the model's pick only at SportsLine. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Cowboys vs. 49ers:

• Cowboys vs. 49ers spread: San Francisco -3.5
• Cowboys vs. 49ers over/under: 45 points
• Cowboys vs. 49ers money line: San Francisco -186, Dallas +156
• SF: RB Christian McCaffrey leads the NFL in rushing yards (459)
• DAL: The defense leads the league in pressure rate (55%)
• Cowboys vs. 49ers picks: See picks here
• Cowboys vs. 49ers live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why the 49ers can cover

San Francisco has arguably the best running back in the league, Christian McCaffrey. The rushing and receiving threat leads the NFL in rushing yards (459) and is tied for the league lead in total touchdowns (seven). He is just the third player in NFL history with 600-plus scrimmage yards and seven-plus touchdowns through four games, joining Jim Brown and Emmitt Smith.

In addition, the 49ers have had the Cowboys' number recently, winning the last two matchups, both in the playoffs. Two seasons ago, San Francisco jumped out to a 23-7 lead before holding onto for a 23-17 victory in a wild card matchup. Earlier this year in the divisional round, the 49ers made two key interceptions of Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott in a 19-12 win. See which team to pick here.

Why the Cowboys can cover

The defense has been elite at pressuring the quarterback this season. Led by Micah Parsons, Dallas has the best pressure rate (55%) by any NFL team in its first four games of a season since at least 2017. The Cowboys' natural pressure rate (four or fewer pass rushers) of 52% also leads the league and is miles ahead of the next-best team, the Packers (39%).

The defense also has been strong at forcing turnovers. Dallas has generated 10 takeaways this season, tied for second in the NFL. The turnovers have helped the Cowboys score four non-offensive touchdowns this season, becoming the first team with four such scores through four games since the 2015 Cardinals. See which team to pick here.

How to make 49ers vs. Cowboys picks

Now, the model has broken down Cowboys vs. 49ers from every angle. The model is leaning Under the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 43 points. It also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. You can see the model's NFL picks and analysis only at SportsLine. 

So who wins 49ers vs. Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, and which side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the 49ers vs. Cowboys spread you should jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $7,000 on top-rated NFL picks, and find out.