Dave Nevison's top tips: best bets for Carlisle on Thursday

Betting expert Dave Nevison likes a trio running at Carlisle on Thursday. Watch how they fare live on Racing TV, when the channel will also be showing the action at Chelmsford, Stratford and Navan.

2.45 Carlisle: Shahnaz

Gemma Tutty’s six-year-old mare has had soft ground to contend with on her past three starts. It does not seem to suit her but she is back on a sounder surface on Thursday.

The last time she was seen on fast ground was when a good fourth to Jackhammer in a much more competitive race than this at Hamilton off a 7lb higher mark.

Moreover, on her latest spin at Carlisle she won a 0-70 handicap over this distance in decent style off a mark of 69. She has dropped down to a mark of 58 and has a decent jockey booked for this uncompetitive 0-60 contest. Clearly, she has a big chance if in any sort of form.

3.45 Carlisle: Rock Of England

Ed Bethell has relaxed the headgear on Rock Of England, substituting a visor for the blinkers he has been running well in recently.

The gelding has not been doing a lot wrong and looks to have a great chance, having been dropped back to a handicap confined to three-year-olds.

He bolted up when he won at Hamilton in June and has since not done anything wrong; running two creditable seconds then having excuses when racing on his own at Redcar last time.

The uphill finish, similar to that at Hamilton, seems likely to suit and Danny Tudhope is a solid booking.

5.20 Carlisle: Run Simba

Karl Burke will obviously be aware a winning filly by Roaring Lion is a valuable commodity and this looks a good opportunity for Run Simba to get off the mark.

This filly has been slow to get going and has clearly had setbacks but she certainly looks as though she is in decent form judged on her latest effort, when staying on all the way to the line at Ayr. This stiffer track may suit her.

Burke didn’t have a winner at the Ebor meeting but several of his team ran well and he enjoyed a Group Three success at Goodwood over the weekend. The yard is still going along nicely.