Dodgers-Nationals prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, September 8

After busting out for 10 runs to salvage the final game of their series against the Miami Marlins, the Los Angeles Dodgers (85-54) head up the East Coast this weekend for a three-game set against the Washington Nationals (63-77) in D.C. First pitch from Nationals Park is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Rookie Emmet Sheehan (3-1, 5.31 ERA) will get the start for L.A., while Washington counters with lefty MacKenzie Gore (7-10, 4.28).

The Dodgers enter as -162 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Nationals at +136. The run total is set at 9.5.

Dodgers-Nationals picks: Friday, September 8

Injury report

Dodgers

Out: DH J.D. Martinez (groin tightness), RP Joe Kelly (right elbow inflammation), SP RHP Michael Grove (right lat tightness), RP Yency Almonte (right knee sprain), SP Walker Buehler (Tommy John surgery)

Nationals

Day to day: OF Lane Thomas (back), C Riley Adams (hand)
Out: RP Thaddeus Ward (shoulder), RP Carl Edwards Jr. (shoulder), OF Stone Garrett (leg), OF Victor Robles (back)

Starting pitchers

Emmet Sheehan vs. MacKenzie Gore

Julio Urias’ absence — plus a slew of injuries up and down the rotation — have given Sheehan another crack at starting in L.A., after the top prospect struggled to a 5.77 ERA over his first seven Major League starts. He hasn’t pitched more than four innings since the end of July, but after throwing 76 pitches last weekend, he should be able to go at least 80-90 today — and if he’s as locked-in as he was against the Braves in that most recent start (four innings, one run, six Ks) he could have some real success.

Gore has been a roller-coaster ride so far this season, showing the potential that made him among the game’s top pitching prospects (and one of the centerpieces of the Juan Soto trade) not too long ago but never able to keep it going for more than a start or two at a time. Here are the lefty’s run totals over his last 14 starts: 5, 0, 5, 1, 7, 0, 5, 0, 3, 2, 6, 0, 6, 1. Good luck figuring out which version of him you’re going to get on a given day, but his strong whiff (64th percentile) and K rates (70th) point to how good he can be when he’s got his command going and is keeping his slider and curveball down.

Over/Under pick

The Dodgers did admittedly just torch Marlins southpaw Braxton Garrett last night, but overall L.A. has struggled a bit against lefties recently, with an OPS that ranks just 17th in the Majors over the last three weeks. (Being without one of their best righty bats in J.D. Martinez certainly hasn’t helped.) Gore could torch this under all by himself, but he’s looked more solid with his command of late, and with Sheehan and a rested Dodgers bullpen on the other side, this feels like too high a number considering that L.A. has fallen below it in four of six.

Pick: Under 9.5

Moneyline pick

Don’t overthink this one. I think Gore can keep this game reasonably close, but Sheehan has been pitching well lately and the Dodgers have the far, far deeper lineup of these two teams.