Dodgers-Red Sox prediction: Picks, odds on Saturday, August 26

Mookie Betts and the Los Angeles Dodgers (79-48) rallied for an emotional 7-4 win on the series opener against the Boston Red Sox (68-61) on Friday night, and now these two teams will match up again on Saturday afternoon at Fenway Park. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. It’ll be a battle of lefties on the mound, as L.A. will give the ball to Julio Urias (11-6, 4.15 ERA) while James Paxton (7-4, 3.79) goes for the Red Sox.

The Dodgers enter as -130 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Boston at +110. The run total is set at 10.

Dodgers-Red Sox picks: Saturday, August 26

Injury report

Dodgers

Out: SP Tony Gonsolin (right forearm inflammation), DH J.D. Martinez (groin tightness), RP Joe Kelly (right forearm inflammation), RP Yency Almonte (right knee sprain), SP Michael Grove (right lat tightness), RP Blake Treninen (right shoulder), SP Walker Buehler (Tommy John surgery)

Red Sox

Day-to-day: RP Kenley Jansen (right hamstring tightness)
Out: OF Jarren Duran (left toe contusion), SP Corey Kluber (right shoulder inflammation)

Starting pitchers

Julio Urias vs. James Paxton

After a rocky start to 2023 that featured over a month on the IL with a hamstring injury, Urias has looked much more like his typical self in August. The lefty has pitched to a 1.44 ERA over four starts this month, punctuated by seven innings of one-run ball in a win over the Marlins last weekend. Urias’ command was off earlier in the year, but he’s dialed in now — he’s walked two batters and with three earned runs allowed all month — with his changeup and his slider earning a ton of awkward swings of late.

Paxton, meanwhile, is trending in the opposite direction: After a sensational start to his first year in Boston, the lefty has gotten lit up of late, with a 5.31 ERA this month and an ugly seven-run outing against the Astros last time he took the mound. Of particular concern is Paxton’s fastball velocity; the pitch is his bread and butter (he throws it over 55% of the time) but it hasn’t been nearly as electric as it was earlier this year, and that leaves him awfully vulnerable.

Over/Under pick

We saw a 7-4 final on Friday night, but given Urias’ recent form — and Boston’s inconsistency on offense this month — I’m backing the under given the very high number here. The Red Sox are 24th in baseball in team OPS against lefties this month, and I think Urias will do enough to keep Boston at bay and keep us under here unless the Dodgers really, really explode at the plate.

Pick: Under 10

Moneyline pick

L.A. has the starter in far better form and the deeper lineup in this game, and truthfully, they should be even steeper favorites. At relatively even odds, give me the hotter and more talented team every time.