Dolphins vs. Chiefs prediction: NFL Wild Card odds, picks, best bets

It’s not only going to be cold in Kansas City on Saturday night, but potential record-breaking low temperatures are forecast for an NFL playoff game.

In a nighttime AFC Wild Card matchup, the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Miami Dolphins at Arrowhead Stadium where temperatures are expected around 0 degrees at kickoff with a wind chill (gusts of 30 mph are forecast) that will make it seem like more like 30 below.

This is not good news for the team from South Beach, which has lost 10 straight games when the temperature at kickoff dips below 40 degrees, and the quarterback – Tua Tagovailoa – who has never won a game with game-time temps below 45 degrees.

Past the weather issues, the defending champion Chiefs seek their 10th home playoff win in 12 tries with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.

Kansas City won the AFC West title for the eighth straight season after finishing 11-6, but it was not easy, nor typical of a Mahomes-led Chiefs team.

The two-time league MVP finished the season with his fewest passing yards since 2019 as he closed 2023 with 4,183 yards and a career-high 14 interceptions.

The Dolphins are back in the playoffs for a second consecutive season under coach Mike McDaniel, although Miami missed out on an AFC East title after losing to Buffalo in Week 18.

In last season’s wild-card loss to the Bills, Tagovailoa missed the game due to a concussion.

However, he is set to make his playoff debut after leading Miami to an 11-6 record and throwing for a league-best 4,624 yards.

It’s also the return to Kansas City for Dolphins star wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who was traded to Miami prior to the 2022 season.

Hill led the league in receiving yards with 1,799 after finishing second in the NFL last season.

These teams met in Germany back in November.

The Chiefs jumped out to a 21-0 halftime lead and hung on for a 21-14 victory.

Both Mahomes and Tagovailoa were held to fewer than 200 yards passing, but the Kansas City quarterback threw two touchdowns in the win.

It’s hard to ignore Miami’s 1-4 record both straight-up and against the spread in the underdog role, including road losses to Philadelphia, Buffalo and Baltimore. 

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Throw in a multitude of key injuries on both sides of the ball, the expected frigid weather and their dismal record playing in it, it becomes difficult to see a path to victory for the Dolphins.

Miami is walking into a difficult situation against a playoff-tested Kansas City team that has seen plenty of success in the postseason with Mahomes under center.

Most books opened this game up at Chiefs -3, basically calling these teams even with three points going to the home team. But the spread has since risen to as high as -5.

There’s too much working against the Dolphins to think that the current number might still be too low. Let’s lay the points with the Chiefs.

Pick: Chiefs -4.5 (-110, FanDuel)