NFL Super Wild Card Weekend Best Bets: Chiefs vs Dolphins, Steelers vs Bills, More!

Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bets for the NFL’s Super Wild Card Weekend, including props and game picks.

Dolphins at Chiefs (-4.5): O/U 43.5

The Chiefs and the Dolphins meet in one of the coldest games in postseason history. With an expected temperature of -2 and a low of -8, plus the wind chill will make it feel -20 to -30 degrees, so this should be brutal.

Kansas City has scored 20 or fewer points in four out of the last seven meaningful games down the stretch, plus no team has scored more than 21 points in Arrowhead this season.

Miami’s offense has been amazing for most of the season, but with 22 or fewer points in three straight games and the weather expected in this road game, I don’t have much faith in the Dolphins’ offense.

I grabbed the Under 44.0 at -120 odds and would go down to 43.0 for 1 unit. I lean Under or a fade on Miami’s Team Total as well.

Steelers at Bills (-9.5): O/U 34.0

The Steelers and Bills game is expected to have dramatic weather as well. The wind is expected to surpass 20 MPH and reach 30 or more with sub-30-degree weather and snow everywhere.

This will be a fun watch, but another brutal game for the players. Neither Pittsburgh nor Buffalo have had much success on offense this season, but both teams will have similar game plans — load the box, get pressure, and stop the run.

I don’t trust either QB, especially with player prop totals of 204.5 and 144.5 passing yards for Josh Allen and Mason Rudolph. Kicking will be an issue, so expect some fourth-down tries and empty drives.

There are 33.5’s popping up, so I grabbed the Under 34.0 at -110 odds. I would go down to 33, but prefer the 34 up to -125 odds, so shop around for a 34.0.

Patrick Mahomes O/U 4.5 Rushing Attempts vs. Dolphins

The Dolphins and Chiefs meet at Arrowhead in a game featuring freezing-cold weather that should impact both teams. With that in mind, and neither spread nor total being a confident bet for me, I am rolling with a Patrick Mahomes prop.

Mahomes set a career-high in rushing attempts this season with 75, plus career-highs in rushing yards (389), first downs (27) and fumbles (1). The Chiefs’ quarterback hasn’t had the same chemistry with his receivers as previous seasons (Tyreek Hill factor) and that was evident with his lowest passing yards total since 2019 and the most interceptions of his career (14).

Mahomes has averaged at least four carries per game in each postseason dating back to 2019 and recorded 67 rushing attempts over 14 games (4.7 per game).

The Chiefs QB has recorded three rushing attempts in four of his last five postseason games, so this prop has been profitable to the Under, but I am playing the other side as I expect Mahomes to make plays on his own and possibly get a red zone carry or two (13 on season, 9th for QBs).

Considering the weather, the Chiefs’ receiving core, and the ability of Mahomes to improvise, I played Mahomes Over 4.5 rushing attempts at -110 odds. Shop around but I got this at -115 odds. I would go over 5.5 rushing attempts for a 0.5 unit or pivot to rushing yards.

Mason Rudolph O/U 0.5 Interceptions vs. Bills

Mason Rudolph has yet to throw an interception on the season, but as a reminder, he started three games. This will be Rudolph’s first playoff start and the weather will be atrocious for this matchup.

Either way, the pressure is on and while the Bills are a bottom-10 rushing defense across the board, Buffalo will load the box and attempt to make Rudolph make plays. The Steelers quarterback averages a 25% completion percentage versus man coverage and 80.6% versus zone coverage over the past three games, so it’s obvious what Buffalo will give him.

With only four danger plays and two interceptable passes through three games, I can understand why this is almost -110 for Over or Under 0.5 interceptions, but I like the Over.

The Bills have four playoff interceptions against Mac Jones and Skylar Thompson over the last two years and none versus Joe Burrow or Patrick Mahomes. I know which duo I am grouping Rudolph with.

I played Rudolph Over 0.5 interceptions at -115 odds and would go out to -130 on this prop.

Season Record: 60-38-1 (61.2%) +14.95u

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