Falcons vs. Lions Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 3: Robinson Set for Career Game

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22 September 2023

Falcons vs. Lions Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 3: Robinson Set for Career Game

The Detroit Lions will host the Atlanta Falcons, as we make our best Falcons vs. Lions predictions based on the best NFL odds.

The Lions followed up their thrilling Week 1 win over the Kansas City Chiefs with a disappointing home loss to the Seattle Seahawks. In defeat, they allowed Geno Smith to throw for 328 yards. After the performance, the secondary placed CJ Gardner-Johnson on IR.

The Falcons moved to 2-0 after a one-point win over the Green Bay Packers. While their passing game has not been good, their rushing attack is averaging 170.5 yards per game.

Here is our best Falcons vs. Lions prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Falcons vs. Lions prediction

Bijan Robinson Over 24.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

With Garner-Johnson and running back David Montgomery definitely out this week, and with Amon-Ra St. Brown dealing with a toe injury, it’s really hard to trust the Lions. However, the Falcons’ offense may not be able to take advantage of the Lions’ defensive injuries, and while the defense has put up solid numbers, they have not proven themselves against a good offense yet.

Without a confident play on the spread or the total, we’re looking at Bijan Robinson. The Lions’ rush defense has been very good this season. They’re only allowing 86 yards per game, and while the Falcons will always find ways to pick up yards on the ground, the Lions score so many points that the Falcons may need to mix up their game plan to keep up.

That’s why we’re avoiding Robinson’s rushing total. Instead, we’re taking his receiving yards Over. Robinson has caught 10 of Desmond Ridder’s 34 completions this season. He had 48 yards in Week 2, after a 27-yard performance in Week 1.

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The Lions have an aggressive defensive line, which forces quarterbacks to get rid of the ball quickly. Smith did a phenomenal job of exploiting that in Week 2, though his passes weren’t to his running backs. However, the week prior, Isaiah Pacheco had four catches for 31 yards.

Ridder loves to throw the ball to his running backs, and with this matchup, Robinson may set career highs in both receiving yards and receptions.

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Falcons vs. Lions best odds

FanDuel is the only major sportsbook without a line listed for Robinson. Of the other best sports betting apps, bet365 has made it easy for us by offering a price of -110 compared to -115 everywhere else.

Each sportsbook currently has this total listed at 24.5 yards, which means FanDuel will probably offer something similar when they finally release a line. Therefore, it’s not worth waiting on this.

Wager at bet365 to get the best price.

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Falcons vs. Lions odds

The Lions opened as 4.5-point favorites, but with all the injuries this team suffered last week, the spread has dropped as low as 3 at some of the best sports betting sites. 70% of wagers are backing the Lions to cover, so it will be interesting to see if oddsmakers continue to ignore the public, or if they were simply making a correction to the spread with the players missing this game in mind.

As for the total, it opened at 46.5 and it has not moved despite 76% of bettors backing the Over. The games in which these two teams have played thus far have produced final scores that are not necessarily indicative of the way the games have been played. With that in mind, we actually think this number could go down, despite the overwhelming support for the Over.