Giants vs Dolphins Odds, Picks & Predictions

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06 October 2023

Giants vs Dolphins Odds, Picks & Predictions

The Dolphins weren't able to stay undefeated in Buffalo last week, but returning home and hosting a Giants team that looks like it's flushing another year down the toilet is just what the doctor ordered in Week 5, per our NFL betting picks.

Two teams that have had wildly different starts to their seasons will face off in South Florida with the high-flying Dolphins playing host to the horror movie that is the New York Giants. This game features the biggest spread in the Week 5 odds with Miami favored by 11 points, while the total for the game is on the high end at 48.5.

While the Dolphins will be looking to get back on track after hitting a big speed bump in Buffalo last week, the Giants will be trying to keep the wheels from falling off in yet another game as they’ve been humiliated on multiple occasions in the season’s first month.

Let’s dig into the strengths and weaknesses that the teams have shown so far as well as the NFL odds as I provide my free NFL picks for Giants vs. Dolphins on October 8.

Giants vs Dolphins odds

Giants vs Dolphins predictions

The Dolphins’ time as the darling of the NFL came to a crashing halt vs. the Bills last week in what was their biggest challenge of the season. They started strong, going blow-for-blow for the first 18 minutes of the game, but the defense ultimately played horribly and couldn’t get stops, which led the Bills to scoring 48 points.

Despite the embarrassing performance from the defense, the Dolphins need to be satisfied with a 3-1 start where their offense is leading the league in points per game and yards per play. While the offense failed to consistently display its explosiveness against Buffalo, this should be an opportunity for them to bounce back.

Much of Miami’s offensive success this season is due to Tua Tagovailoa getting rid of the ball quickly and not being pressured at a high percentage. The Dolphins have allowed the lowest pressure percentage in the NFL, and while the Bills were able to disrupt Tua for the first time this season, I doubt the Giants will be able to do the same.

New York is in the Bottom 10 in pressure percentage with just four sacks. The Dolphins dropped 36 on the Chargers and 70 on the Broncos, a pair of defenses that also generate low pressure.

You won’t find much more contrast when comparing two offenses, as the Giants rank 31st in yards per play while averaging an embarrassing league-low 11.5 points per game, which is 26 fewer than the Dolphins. While Miami’s defense looked horrible vs. the Bills last week, this could be a “get-right spot” on their homefield.

This Giants offense is significantly flawed and makes a lot of mistakes. They’ve already allowed 23 sacks and have turned the ball over eight times. In two home games, they’ve scored a pathetic three total points. Daniel Jones appears to be reverting to his old self, and he has no serious skill players to lean on.

This needs to be a showcase game for Dolphins’ new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. The highly-regarded defensive mind hasn’t done a great job through four games, but he’ll have an opportunity to get some momentum going against the NFL’s worst offense, which is also traveling on a short week after getting beat up on Monday Night Football.

New York averaged just 3.4 yards per play against a Seattle defense that’s probably not as talented as Miami’s, so a respectable performance from the Dolphins defense should be expected.

Another problem for the Giants is that they’re falling into massive holes. They’ve been outscored a ridiculous 77-9 in the first half of games this season. Miami, meanwhile, leads the NFL with an average of 21.5 first half points.

As a result of this, and everything mentioned above, give me the Dolphins to cover the first half spread at -6.5 for my best bet in this game.

My best bet: Dolphins first half -6.5 (-125 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Not intended for use in MA.
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Giants vs Dolphins same-game parlay

Dolphins first half -6.5

Giants Team Total Under 17.5

As noted above, the Giants are averaging a league-low 11.5 points per game. They’ve stayed Under 17.5 in three of their four games and are in a tough spot on a short week vs. a defense that’ll be desperate for a good performance on its home field.

While Miami’s offense will likely struggle against good offenses throughout the season, we have seen them rise to the occasion against poor ones. In New England in Week 2, they held the Patriots to 17 points on 4.1 yards per play. I expect a similar results vs. the Giants.

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Giants vs Dolphins spread and Over/Under analysis

The Giants are no stranger to being a big underdog, as they’ve been a double-digit dog 10 times since the start of the 2020 season and have gone an even 5-5 ATS in these games. They were a +10.5-point underdog in San Francisco in Week 3 and lost by 18 points.

This will be the second time during the Mike McDaniel era that the Dolphins are a double-digit favorite. The first time came last season where they were favored by 14 over the Texans. They jumped out to a 30-0 lead in that game and went on to win by 15.

Miami generally doesn’t play down to the competition at home, as they’re on a stretch that’s seen them go 15-5-2 ATS as a home favorite going back to 2016. They’re 5-2 ATS under McDaniel in this spot.

As for this total of 48.5, it’s a tough one to predict considering the contrast we’ve seen in these teams’ games this season. Miami has seen three of its four games have at least 68 combined points, while the Giants have seen three of their four games combine for 42 points or less.