Dolphins vs. Eagles Predictions, Picks, Odds Week 7

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19 October 2023

Dolphins vs. Eagles Predictions, Picks, Odds Week 7

Two 5-1 teams that sit in ties atop their respective conferences meet on Sunday Night Football, and we've got you covered with Miami Dolphins vs. Philadelphia Eagles predictions based on the best NFL odds.

The Miami Dolphins' 5-1 start is their best since 2002, and they improved to 3-0 at home with a 42-21 victory over the Carolina Panthers in Week 6. Miami has averaged 47.7 points per game in those contests.

The Philadelphia Eagles suffered their first loss of the season in Week 6, falling 20-14 to the New York Jets after being outscored 11-0 in the second half. The defeat marked the Eagles' first in 13 all-time matchups against the Jets. Philadelphia committed a season-high four turnovers and was held to lows in rushing yards (80) and points.

NFL Week 7 odds and lines when you're done with our best Dolphins vs. Eagles prediction for Sunday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Dolphins vs. Eagles prediction: Sunday Night Football

We like to capitalize on bettors' overreactions to the prior week in a high-profile game like this, and that has us backing the Eagles on the moneyline. Many will be soured on Philadelphia after punting twice, throwing two interceptions, missing a field goal, and turning the ball over on downs in their six second-half possessions last week. We recognize that the Dolphins will be trendy underdogs after falling 65 yards shy of setting the NFL record for most total yards through six games, but we prefer to be on the contrarian side.

Miami's offense ranks first in the league in several statistical categories outside total yardage, like first downs, red zone percentage, and explosive plays. The Dolphins were impressive in not allowing a sack and converting 7-of-13 third downs to a Panthers team that entered the game with the fourth-highest sack rate and the second-best third-down defense (29.8%).

However, this is also the same Miami team that allowed 48 points — the most in two seasons under Mike McDaniel — in its last road game (against the Buffalo Bills in Week 4) while logging season lows in Offensive Efficiency and Offensive EPA, while getting pressured on a season-high 27% of dropbacks. Philadelphia is built more like Buffalo than Carolina, and we expect similar success.

Philadelphia's defensive numbers have dropped considerably from a team that ranked first in QBR, sack percentage, and yards per play for the last two seasons. However, the Eagles aren't likely to put their defense in as many precarious situations as they did against the Jets last week after committing four turnovers — Philadelphia has committed just one turnover at home this season. Miami leads the NFL with 49 quarterback hits, but the only quarterback it has seen as physical and mobile as Jalen Hurts is Josh Allen, who torched the Dolphins for 337 total yards and five total touchdowns in Week 4.

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Dolphins vs. Eagles best odds

A 16-unit gap is a sizable difference between the lowest moneyline odds and highest moneyline odds, so DraftKings is the no-brainer go-to shop for Eagles backers. The -125 odds are so low that it's easier to back the moneyline, bet the favorites to win outright, and forego the low two-point spread. If the moneyline odds go to -130 or higher, we would evaluate a switch to the point spread (as long as it was under a field goal).

Dolphins vs. Eagles odds for Sunday Night Football

The best sports betting sites are aligned with a spread of Philadelphia -2, with BetRivers only charging more than the price of -110 to back the Eagles (it is at -113). We have seen movement favoring both teams at various sportsbooks, as Philadelphia has gone from -2.5 to -2 at FanDuel, DraftKings, and Caesars but has increased from -1.5 to -2 at BetMGM. Fifty-seven percent of the early point spread wagers are on the Dolphins, following the trend that Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games.

FanDuel is the only sportsbook offering a total of 51.5, as all others are in unison at 52. It opened at 52.5 and held firm there for two days before dropping to 51.5 early Tuesday morning. DraftKings saw slightly more fluctuation, going up from 52.5 to 53.5 on Monday afternoon, before Under backers slammed that high number and drove the line down 1.5 points. Early wagers are 3/1 (74/26) in favor of the Over, and the Over has cashed in five of Miami's previous six road games.