Giants vs. Eagles Prediction, Odds, and Picks for Divisional Round

My Giants vs. Eagles betting prediction looks at a Week 18 rematch between division rivals. The Giants are the last team the Eagles faced due to their first-round bye. In Week 18, the Eagles’ starters struggled to put away the Giants’ backups. New York will certainly be coming in with confidence, especially following their upset of the conference’s No. 3 seed Vikings.

My Behavior Bets sports betting model has identified value with these Giants vs. Eagles odds. The spread presents an intriguing opportunity to cash a win, as the books think this game will not be as close as the model does.

Giants vs. Eagles Odds | Divisional Round

• Spread
  Giants +7.5
• Moneyline
  Eagles -365
• Over/Under
  OVER 48

Giants vs. Eagles Prediction

The Behavior Bets sports betting model went 19-5-1 on Wild Card Weekend, going up +99.5u and sporting a +160.43% ROI. For the season, the model is 176-85-7* on bets against the spread, the moneyline, and props.

The model had an average projected point range within five points of the actual scores. Let’s see if we can keep it going starting with this New York vs. Philadelphia prediction. Make sure you also check out my full NFL playoff bracket prediction. I made it through the Wild Card round unscathed.

The Giants defeated the Minnesota Vikings in one of the more exciting games of the weekend, as predicted in my Wild Card piece on them. They did it through ball control, thanks to Daniel Jones being extremely efficient. That is the recipe for the Giants’ success. They must win time of possession.

To score 28 points at their current projected scoring behavior rate (SBR), they would need to hold the ball for at least 37 minutes. That seems unlikely. They haven’t held the ball that long all season, and they had it for only 28 and 27 minutes in both games against Philly this season.

Yes, it is true they had a higher SBR against the Vikings. They scored at a clip of 0.925 points per minute of possession time. However, that is only the second time in 18 games they have hit that mark, and they did it against one of the lesser defenses in the playoffs.

The Eagles’ defense is a different animal. While they haven’t been dominant in ways like we have seen from teams like San Francisco, they have held teams below the 0.8 SBR the Giants are projected to have in 12 out of 17 games this season. What cannot be discounted is the inconsistency they have played with.

At a bounce rate of x3.2, they remain one of the more inconsistent defenses in the postseason. That said, they are projected to have a scoring behavior prevention rate (SBPR) of 0.7. As a result, the Giants at best probably only score 24 points according to my Behavior Bets model Giants vs. Eagles prediction.

The Eagles Are Too Explosive

The Eagles are explosive on the offensive side of the ball, especially with a healthy Jalen Hurts. The extra week off was of benefit to the Eagles, probably more than any other team. When Hurts is in, this offense has so many ways to score from anywhere on the field.

Consider this — in the 11 games since the bye week, the Eagles have an SBR of 1.1 or more in six of those games and an SBR of 0.8 in eight of them. They are a handful for any team they face. Yes, they only scored 22 points against the Giants in Week 18 in Jalen Hurts’ first game back from injury. That said, they did put up 48(!) in their first meeting.

If Hurts is healthy and rested, he can beat you any way he wants. He is a proven passer and a dynamic runner. The addition of A.J. Brown this season gives them a “just go get it” wide receiver, and it is for these games that they got him.

The Giants’ defense is tasked with stopping all of that. While they did it in Week 18, I am not putting too much stock in what we saw from these teams then. This is a completely different environment.

Prior to the bye week, the Giants were one of the most consistent defenses in SBPR, with a bounce rate under x1.9. That is super reliable. After the bye week, though? They have become 53% more unstable with a bounce rate over x2.9. In the second half of the season, they had really good games and really bad ones.

The Vikings have been an explosive offense all year. The Eagles have been a better scoring team by 27%. The Giants surrendered a 0.9 SBPR to Minnesota. If the Eagles are on point, this could be a challenge.

The Giants are projected to have an SBPR of just over 0.7. I think Philly surpasses that, but not by too much where this is a blowout. This Giants vs. Eagles prediction projects the Eagles to score 27 points.

Giants vs. Eagles Prediction
Giants 24, Eagles 27