How the Bills-Bengals cancellation affects the AFC playoff picture

The NFL enters Week 18 without a result from the Bills–Bengals game, which the league canceled Thursday night in the wake of Damar Hamlin’s on-field cardiac arrest. The game would have had a significant impact on the AFC playoff picture, as Cincinnati and Buffalo both entered Monday’s game in the running for the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye.

To mitigate competitive inequity issues arising from Buffalo and Cincinnati playing one fewer game than all other teams, the league’s competition committee approved two measures that all clubs will consider in a special league meeting on Friday:

1. The AFC championship game will be played at a neutral site if the participating teams played an unequal number of games and both could have been the No. 1 seed had they each played a full 17-game schedule.
2. If the Ravens beat the Bengals in Week 18 and the teams face each other in the wild-card round, a coin toss will determine the game’s location. A Baltimore win would give the Ravens two head-to-head victories over Cincinnati, but the Bengals entering the game having now clinched the AFC North by win percentage.

Below are the 16 ways the AFC’s top six seeds could now shake out. The odds of each scenario happening are via The Athletic’s betting model, created by Austin Mock.

Current AFC playoff teams

Entering Week 18, five AFC teams have clinched a playoff berth in one way or another:

Clinched division

• Chiefs (13-3)
• Bills (12-3)
• Bengals (11-4)

Clinched at least a playoff berth

• Ravens (10-6)

Based on the results of their four games this week (Bengals host the Ravens), the AFC Top 6 could shake out in 16 different ways, assuming there are no ties.

The No. 7 seed can be filled by four teams (Jaguars, Patriots, Dolphins or Steelers), but other than Jacksonville — which can clinch the AFC South and No. 4 seed with a win over the Titans on Sunday — none of them can climb higher than the No. 7 seed so they are not included in this exercise.

Potential outcomes – AFC Top 6

Scenario 1: Chiefs def. Raiders, Bills def. Patriots, Bengals def. Ravens and Chargers def. Broncos

A Kansas City-Buffalo AFC championship game would be at a neutral site in this scenario.

Though the Bengals and Ravens would meet in the wild-card round in this scenario, a Bengals win means the game would be in Cincinnati.

Odds of happening: 27.4 percent

Scenario 2: Chiefs def. Raiders, Bills def. Patriots, Bengals def. Ravens and Broncos def. Chargers

A Kansas City-Buffalo AFC championship game would be at a neutral site in this scenario.

Though the Bengals and Ravens would meet in the wild-card round in this scenario, a Bengals win means the game would be in Cincinnati. The Chargers’ conference record (7-5 in this scenario) gives them the tiebreaker over the Ravens (6-6 in this scenario).

Odds of happening: 15.6 percent

Scenario 3: Chiefs def. Raiders, Bills def. Patriots, Ravens def. Bengals and Chargers def. Broncos

A Kansas City-Buffalo AFC championship game would be at a neutral site in this scenario.

After a Ravens win in Week 18, a coin toss would determine the location of the wild-card game between Baltimore and Cincinnati. The Chargers’ conference record (8-4 in this scenario) gives them the tiebreaker over the Ravens (7-5 in this scenario).

Odds of happening: 13.7 percent

Scenario 4: Chiefs def. Raiders, Bills def. Patriots, Ravens def. Bengals and Broncos def. Chargers

A Kansas City-Buffalo AFC championship game would be at a neutral site in this scenario.

Odds of happening: 7.8 percent

Scenario 5: Chiefs def. Raiders, Patriots def. Bills, Bengals def. Ravens and Chargers def. Broncos

The Chiefs would be the outright winners of the No. 1 seed in this scenario and host the AFC championship game if they reach that round.

The tiebreaker between Buffalo and Cincinnati here would come down to strength of victory, as both teams would have 8-3 conference records. The Bengals currently hold the edge ahead of Week 18 (Cincinnati: .483; Buffalo: .479), and the Bengals’ number would improve with a win over the Ravens.

Odds of happening: 7.6 percent

Scenario 6: Raiders def. Chiefs, Bills def. Patriots, Bengals def. Ravens and Chargers def. Broncos

The NFL is only utilizing a neutral site for the AFC championship game if participating teams played an uneven number of games and both could have been the top seed had they each played the full 17-game schedule, but that is not the case here. Buffalo would host the AFC championship game if it reached that round in this scenario, as the Bills have a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chiefs and, in this instance, a better 16-game record than the Bengals.

Though the Bengals and Ravens would meet in the wild-card round in this scenario, the game would be in Cincinnati because of a Bengals win in Week 18.

Odds of happening: 5.8 percent

Scenario 7: Chiefs def. Raiders, Patriots def. Bills, Bengals def. Ravens and Broncos def. Chargers

The Chiefs would be the outright winners of the No. 1 seed in this scenario and host the AFC championship game if they reach that round.

The Bengals would presently be the No. 2 seed over Buffalo by virtue of strength of victory, as outlined above in scenario No. 5.

Odds of happening: 4.3 percent

Scenario 8: Chiefs def. Raiders, Patriots def. Bills, Ravens def. Bengals and Chargers def. Broncos

The Chiefs would be the outright winners of the No. 1 seed in this scenario and host the AFC championship game if they reach that round.

After a Ravens win in Week 18, a coin toss would determine the location of the wild-card game between Baltimore and Cincinnati. The Chargers’ conference record (8-4 in this scenario) gives them the tiebreaker over the Ravens (7-5 in this scenario).

Odds of happening: 3.8 percent

Scenario 9: Raiders def. Chiefs, Bills def. Patriots, Bengals def. Ravens and Broncos def. Chargers

The NFL is only utilizing a neutral site for the AFC championship game if participating teams played an uneven number of games and both could have been the top seed had they each played the full 17-game schedule, but that is not the case here. Buffalo would host the AFC championship game if it reached that round in this scenario, as the Bills have a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chiefs and, in this instance, a better 16-game record than the Bengals.

Though the Bengals and Ravens would meet in the wild-card round in this scenario, the game would be in Cincinnati because of a Bengals Week 18 win.

Odds of happening: 3.3 percent

Scenario 10: Raiders def. Chiefs, Bills def. Patriots, Ravens def. Bengals and Chargers def. Broncos

The Bills would be the outright No. 1 seed here, as they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chiefs. Buffalo would host the AFC championship game if it reached that round.

After a Ravens win in Week 18, a coin toss would determine the location of the wild-card game between Baltimore and Cincinnati. The Chargers’ conference record (8-4 in this scenario) gives them the tiebreaker over the Ravens (7-5 in this scenario).

Odds of happening: 2.9 percent

Scenario 11: Chiefs def. Raiders, Patriots def. Bills, Ravens def. Bengals and Broncos def. Chargers

The Chiefs would be outright winners of the No. 1 seed here and host the AFC championship game if they reach that round.

Odds of happening: 2.2 percent

Scenario 12: Raiders def. Chiefs, Bills def. Patriots, Ravens def. Bengals and Broncos def. Chargers

The Bills would be the outright No. 1 seed here, as they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chiefs. Buffalo would host the AFC championship game if it reached that round.

Odds of happening: 1.7 percent

Scenario 13: Raiders def. Chiefs, Patriots def. Bills, Bengals def. Ravens and Chargers def. Broncos

If the Chiefs play either the Bengals or Bills in the AFC championship game, it would occur at a neutral site.

Odds of happening: 1.6 percent

Scenario 14: Raiders def. Chiefs, Patriots def. Bills, Bengals def. Ravens and Broncos def. Chargers

If the Chiefs play either the Bengals or Bills in the AFC championship game, it would occur at a neutral site.

In this scenario, the Chargers would have a better conference record (7-5) than the Ravens (6-6), giving the Chargers the tiebreaker.

Odds of happening: 0.9 percent

Scenario 15: Raiders def. Chiefs, Patriots def. Bills, Ravens def. Bengals and Chargers def. Broncos

A Kansas City-Buffalo AFC championship game would be at a neutral site in this scenario.

After a Ravens win in Week 18, a coin toss would determine the location of the wild-card game between Baltimore and Cincinnati. The Chargers’ conference record (8-4 in this scenario) gives them the tiebreaker over the Ravens (7-5 in this scenario).

Odds of happening: 0.8 percent

Scenario 16: Raiders def. Chiefs, Patriots def. Bills, Ravens def. Bengals and Broncos def. Chargers

A Kansas City-Buffalo AFC championship game would be at a neutral site in this scenario.