Islanders season preview: Ilya Sorokin key to playoff push

New York Post

10 October 2023

Islanders season preview: Ilya Sorokin key to playoff push

How far can elite goaltending take you in the modern NHL? The Islanders look like a lab experiment set up to answer the question.

The last two Stanley Cup champions won titles with Darcy Kuemper and Adin Hill in nets for the final.

The last Vezina Trophy winner whose team won the championship was Tim Thomas with the 2011 Bruins — the only such example since the 2005 lockout. We are in a scoring-heavy era of hockey, where speed and skill rule.

The Islanders have not joined the party.

Last year, they were one of just two playoff teams to score fewer than three goals per game and had the worst power play of any team in the postseason by nearly a 3.5 percent margin, ultimately losing in the first round to Carolina.

General manager Lou Lamoriello’s response: Bring back nearly the whole roster, with new contracts for both goaltenders.

There are reasons to believe the Islanders could be a higher-scoring outfit than last year.

Bo Horvat and Pierre Engvall, acquired in January and February of last season, respectively, will be around from the jump.

Mathew Barzal, who missed the last 23 games of the regular season with injury, is healthy and playing alongside Horvat on the top line.

Oliver Wahlstrom is back from knee surgery and players like Noah Dobson and Alexander Romanov have another year of experience under their belts.

But at the end of the day, this is still a team that will get as far as Ilya Sorokin can take it.

Sorokin’s 62 games of heroism in the net last year accounted for the two-point differential that got the Islanders into the playoffs and then some.

On the ice from Long Island

By Evolving Hockey’s measure of goals saved above expected, Sorokin clocked in at an absurd 51.36 — the best of any goaltender since Henrik Lundqvist in 2009-10 — and an average of .856 goals in each of his 60 starts.

It is not hyperbolic to suggest Sorokin was the difference between the Islanders being in the playoffs and being a lottery team.

If the supporting cast is improved, the difference will not be so stark.

But whatever the Islanders do this season will, more likely than not, come down to just how good Sorokin can be.

Offense

At five-on-five, the combination of Barzal and Horvat should provide the sort of play-driving ability the Islanders have spent years looking for.

Barzal has looked unstoppable in camp and the preseason and the two have been on the same page.

If that carries into the regular season and Brock Nelson can produce another year of 35-plus goals, there’s real potential here.

The problem spot is the power play — which last season was shocking in its lack of creativity, flexibility and results.

Training camp has seen only minor tweaks in its composition and structure, with the Islanders talking more about a renewed mentality and confidence than tangible changes.

Confidence, though, will go out the window quickly if the unit struggles again.

Defense

The Islanders’ reputation as a defense-first team, in truth, was held up last year only because of their goaltending.

Lambert brought a more offensively inclined system and, even after reverting to the style of his predecessor midway through the year, the Islanders still ranked 26th in high-danger chances allowed at five-on-five.

They were also 21st in scoring chances allowed and 20th in shots allowed.

Getting a better handle on things here is key, especially given how much they are poised to ask of Sorokin.

The top-six on opening night will be exactly the same as it was most of last season, with the Islanders depending on improvement from Dobson and Romanov, plus a healthy Adam Pelech, to account for improvement.

It looks like Pelech will be paired with Dobson to start the year, a compelling decision that could allow Dobson to contribute more offensively.

Goaltending

Say this for Lamoriello: He is consistent in his philosophy.

Signing Sorokin to an eight-year, $66 million extension that kicks in next season and bringing back Varlamov on a four-year, $11 million deal keeps the goaltender position as one the Islanders do not have to worry about whatsoever.

Sorokin should be a favorite to win his first Vezina Trophy and Varlamov should be one of the best backups in the league.

In a perfect world, the Islanders would split their starts at something more like 52-30 than the 60-22 they did last year and keep Sorokin fresher for the postseason, but it’s not clear whether that will be possible.

Coaching

Lambert’s first season behind the bench was a mixed bag.

He got the Islanders through serious adversity in the form of Barzal’s injury to make the playoffs against the odds.

But slow starts and a dreadful power play proved unfixable problems, and the Isles never looked truly in it during the first-round series against Carolina.

Lambert has cast a more confident figure in camp this year and says he will be more involved in both special teams units, both positive steps.

But it is never easy coaching under Lamoriello, and the proof will be in the pudding.

Most Important Offensive Player

Barzal looks poised to make a run at his career-high in points of 85, set all the way back in 2017-18 when Doug Weight was the head coach and Barzal took home the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie.

That would amount to a major statement for a player who has not broken the 65-point mark since.

Most Important Defensive Player

Dobson struggled on the power play last year and played third-pair minutes at five-on-five, stagnating after a breakout 2021-22.

Getting his confidence back, playing top-four minutes again and taking another step as a two-way player would place him firmly alongside the likes of K’Andre Miller, Moritz Seider and Jakob Chychrun in the ranks of under-25 defenseman.