Islanders vs. Oilers prediction: Bet on Connor McDavid to deliver
The New York Islanders and Edmonton Oilers met for the first time this season five weeks ago.
The Oilers won, 4-1, to end a 2-7-1 slide, while sending the Isles to a fifth straight defeat.
Nobody would know it at the time, but that game in Edmonton was a turning point for both NHL clubs.
For Edmonton, the win against the Islanders sparked an 11-5 run that would propel them into the thick of the playoff race in the Western Conference.
For the Islanders, the defeat seemed to push them back on track as it would be immediately followed with a 9-1-5 run that planted the Isles into second-place in the Metropolitan Division for a couple of nights.
The Oilers and Islanders will meet again on Tuesday night on Long Island and, in a funny twist, both teams have showed some hints of being at a crossroads once again.
(7:30 p.m. ET.)
After winning seven on the spin from Nov. 26 to Dec. 12, the Oilers have come back down to earth a bit with back-to-back losses before they head out on a six-game road trip with three games in the New York City metropolitan area followed by the Christmas break and then three contests in California.
After getting points in 14 of 15 games, the Islanders lost in Montreal on Saturday night in a tough schedule spot. But the case can be made that the Isles look like a team about to hit some turbulence.
They have been without three top-six defensemen for a handful of games, and while they’ve played admirably with new faces Mike Reilly and Robert Bortuzzo in the lineup, the Islanders will need to improve their process ahead of a pivotal stretch of schedule that will see them face the Capitals and Penguins twice and the Hurricanes once to close out 2023.
The Isles’ issues closing out games has been well documented, but it’s their overall defensive play that is the team’s biggest concern.
The Islanders have conceded the sixth-most high-danger scoring chances and seventh-most expected goals at five-on-five, but their exemplary goaltending and offensive improvement have helped to provide cover for a leaky defense.
The combination of an inconsistent defense and a much-improved offense — buoyed by a terrific power play — has turned the Islanders into a clear “Over team” in 2023-24.
The Over is 18-11-1 through the first 30 games of the season for the Isles, but because of their reputation as a defense-first team and the fact that they have one of the best goaltending tandems in the NHL, it’s still pretty common to see Islander games close with low totals (by modern NHL standards).
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Seven of the Islanders’ last 14 games closed with a total of 5.5 and only three of those contests featured an Over/Under of 6.5.
The Over is 12-3 in that span and has cashed four times in a row and in nine of the Isles’ last 10.
At some point the market will adjust, but with the Oilers in town it’s pretty hard to buck the trend Tuesday.
You’d think the Islanders will do everything in their power to slow this game down and avoid getting into a shootout with Connor McDavid and company, but with three of their best defenders on the shelf it’s hard to see this contest not turning into a track meet.
THE PICK: Oilers ML (-135, BetMGM Sportsbook)
