Islanders vs. Oilers prediction, odds, pick: NHL bets for Monday

You’re going to be hard-pressed to find many people that will want to bet the New York Islanders in Edmonton on Monday night.

Not only are the Isles struggling right now, but they’ll also be facing a desperate Oilers team that just fired their head coach Jay Woodcroft.

The new-coach bounce is a real phenomenon in sports (at least in the short term), but it also can cause prices to get a little out of whack as pundits overrate the impact of a new voice providing a jolt. 

Should bettors back the Oilers and their new coach as a -175 home favorite against the Islanders on Monday night?

Most of the Islanders problems right now can be attributed to a lack of scoring punch throughout their lineup.

Without much secondary support, the pressure has been amped up on the likes of Brock Nelson, Bo Horvat, Mat Barzal, Noah Dobson and Kyle Palmieri to provide basically all of the goals.

If those players hit a cold snap, the Islanders are in big trouble.

That’s where the team finds itself Monday after three decent efforts last week led to zero points thanks to a lack of finish and some critical mistakes. 

The underlying metrics paint the Islanders as a middle of the pack team at 5-on-5 and, frankly, that should be more than fine for a team with their goaltending, but the problem is they’ve scored on just 6.5% of their shots at 5-on-5 this season and only one team — the San Jose Sharks — has been worse in that aspect. 

All of this has led the team to a 5-5-3 record and put head coach Lane Lambert on the hot seat. 

Speaking of hot seats, the Oilers became the first team in the NHL to make a change at head coach by letting Jay Woodcroft go after Edmonton’s 3-9-1 start.

The reception to the move was a mixed bag. On one hand, the Oilers were a Stanley Cup favorite and are already eight points adrift of a playoff spot in the Western Conference. But on the other hand, a lot of Edmonton’s issues can be attributed to terrible goaltending so far this season. 

The underlying numbers look terrific for the Oilers, but none of that matters when you have the worst save percentage (.864) in the NHL.

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If Edmonton’s goaltending trends up, the wins will start coming and the coaching switch will be lauded. 

This is a tricky one to handicap, as the Islanders have a decided edge in goal but the Oilers should be buoyant and have a huge edge in scoring prowess.

But given the circumstances — Edmonton trying to insulate its goaltender and the Isles trying to find their footing in order to get a much-needed win — I do think we’ll see both teams play a relatively conservative style of hockey Monday night. 

That could lead to a tight game and one that has a decent chance to go beyond 60 minutes.

The Bet: Regulation draw +350 (BetMGM)