Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 2 Odds, Lines, Picks & Best Bets
- Who: Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars
- When: Sunday, Sept. 17 (Week 2)
- Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Where: EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, FL)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Chiefs -155, Jaguars +135
- Spread: Chiefs -3 (-110), Jaguars +3 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 51 (-110/-110)
Odds from Bet365 Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs suffered a shocking defeat during the season opener on Thursday Night Football and now hit the road to face one of the top challengers in the AFC, the Jacksonville Jaguars, in Week 2.
The Jags pushed the Chiefs to a one-score difference in the divisional round of last year’s playoffs and are among the most popular futures bets in the AFC. They have a built-in advantage because their division is fairly weak and the 2023 NFL schedule placed four of their five toughest matchups at home.
Let’s analyze how the oddsmakers project this matchup and discuss which lines have the most value.
Moneyline
The best bet here is the Chiefs’ moneyline at -155 odds.
Kansas City’s Week 1 loss to the Detroit Lions was unexpected but justifiable by the absences of Travis Kelce and Chris Jones, their second and third-best players behind Patrick Mahomes.
Jones locked up a one-year contract extension to pause the stalemate between him and the front office and will be available to play. Kelce is still questionable at the time of writing but has a good chance to make his season debut as he rehabs a hyperextended knee suffered near the end of training camp.
The Chiefs’ defense was excellent in the loss to the Lions and will be even better with Jones’ return. It only surrendered 14 points (another seven came from a pick-six on a dropped pass), and seven of those came after Detroit ran a fake punt to extend the drive.
Jones had 15.5 sacks in the 2022 regular season and is among the favorites to win Defensive Player of the Year. Adding him to the fold will give KC an even greater presence in the pass-rush.
The Jags, unlike the Chiefs, won their opening gambit against the Indianapolis Colts 31-21. Their defense helped rookie debutant Anthony Richardson look more polished than expected, however, and the ground game did not produce anything special.
Jacksonville was led by the excellence of Trevor Lawrence (24/32, 241 yards, two touchdowns and one interception) and Calvin Ridley (eight receptions, 101 yards and one touchdown). Expect this tandem to continue to turn heads, but trust Kansas City’s ability to put up points on offense and limit them on defense.
Point Spread
The line of three points is tricky for Chiefs bettors, as Kansas City must win by more than a field goal to cover the spread. That said, laying the three points is still a viable option.
There’s something to be said for the unwritten hierarchy in football. The Chiefs have stood atop the AFC for the past half-decade and, aside from the Cincinnati Bengals, have mostly held all challengers at bay. They will also be working with extra motivation given last week’s loss and because they won’t want to fall to 0-2 in a loaded conference.
Mahomes has only lost nine times in the last two seasons, but in games immediately after those losses, he averages 313 yards and has thrown 22 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. Jacksonville was 27th in passing yards and 21st in passing TDs allowed in 2022.
Kansas City might have struggled against the spread overall recently, but they went 4-2 ATS in games where they were favored by three or fewer points or underdogs and covered by an average of 5.1 points across those games. Expect Mahomes to torch the Jaguars’ defense and for the Chiefs to win by more than a field goal.
Over/Under Total
NFL bettors and fans alike should prepare for a shootout and an “Over” in north Florida.
Mahomes is unquestionably the best player in the league and the favorite to win MVP, and Lawrence is quickly ascending into a tier of QBs just behind him.
Although the Under went 12-4 in Week 1, Jacksonville was one of few teams that managed to clear the Over (and did so by 6.5 points). The Chiefs found themselves on the Under, but primetime games have a well-documented history of favoring that side of the total. Sunday’s matchup will be played at 1 p.m. local time and will avoid that negative precedent.
While Kansas City’s defense is solid, they will repeatedly fall victim to the potency of their offense. In other words, they are going to score so many points that opponents will be forced to air the ball out and will inevitably score a decent amount of points as well.
The Lawrence-Ridley connection should be enough to help the Jags fulfill their part in hitting the Over.
Player Prop
Trevor Lawrence Over 251.5 passing yards looks like one of the best player props on the board.
Lawrence’s ascent through the quarterback rankings can be greatly accelerated with a strong outing in a head-to-head matchup with Mahomes. Even though Kansas City should be able to win and cover, Lawrence’s ability is undeniable.
Ridley has added an over-the-top dimension to Jacksonville’s offense that has not been properly accounted for by most of the league. The Chiefs will also put points on the board, so the Over on Lawrence—who averaged 259.8 passing yards in nine home games last year—is a playable pick.
