Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington Prediction, Odds & Best Bets

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16 December 2023

Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington Prediction, Odds & Best Bets

The Ultimate Fighting Championship’s final PPV of the year — UFC 296 — airs live on Saturday, Dec. 16. The thrilling night will be headlined by a UFC Welterweight Championship bout as Leon Edwards puts his gold on the line against the always-tough Colby Covington.

Edwards is one of the hottest UFC fighters at the moment and heads into Saturday’s main event hoping to make his second successful title defense. Covington is no stranger to big-time fights, though, having previously won the interim welterweight championship back in 2018.

If you’re hoping to get in on some UFC 296 main event action, you’ve come to the right place. Keep scrolling to read my Edwards vs Covington prediction and best bets ahead of this weekend.

UFC 296: Edwards vs Covington Betting Odds

UFC 296: Edwards vs Covington odds are as of Saturday, Dec. 16 at 11:20 a.m. ET.

Edwards vs Covington Moneyline

Leon Edwards (-155)
Colby Covington (+130)

Will Edwards vs Covington Go the Distance?

Edwards vs Covington Round Total

Over 4.5 Rounds (-210)
Under 4.5 Rounds (+160)

Edwards vs Covington Tale of the Tape

Record: 21-3 (1 NC) — 17-3
Height: 6’2” — 5’11”
Reach: 74” — 72”
Weight: 170 lbs — 170 lbs
Age: 32 — 35
Fighting Stance: Southpaw — Orthodox
Knockouts: 7 — 4

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UFC 296: Edwards vs Covington Fight Preview

While title changes are a part of the sport, Bovada doesn’t expect to see a new welterweight champion this weekend. The sportsbook is favoring Edwards to retain at -155 odds on the moneyline, which carries an implied win probability of 60.8%.

As mentioned before, Edwards has been one of the UFC’s top fighters for the last few years. The 32-year-old BJJ black belt hasn’t tasted defeat since December 2015, going 11-0 with one no-contest in 12 fights since that loss.

“Rocky” has also won three straight fights ahead of UFC 296. After defeating Nate Diaz via unanimous decision at UFC 263, Edwards went on to knock out Kamaru Usman to win the welterweight championship in August 2022. He then successfully retained the gold with a majority decision win in a rematch against Usman at UFC 286.

At the same time, it isn’t like Covington is a nobody. The 35-year-old veteran has only been defeated three times throughout his 11-year career and has stepped in the ring with some of the toughest welterweights the UFC had to offer.

Covington is also a strong grappler and likely holds the wrestling edge in this matchup. He averages 4.05 takedowns per 15 minutes with 45% accuracy and 72% defense. Although Edwards’ 1.26 takedowns per 15 mins is respectable, his accuracy is much worse (33%) than his opponent.

With that being said, Edwards is more accurate with his significant strikes (53% vs. 39%).

Another thing going against Covington is his lack of recent results in big-time fights. He’s lost his last two fights for the UFC Welterweight title, getting TKO’d by Usman at UFC 245 before losing via unanimous decision to him again at UFC 268.

Only time will tell if the third time is the charm for the challenger.

UFC 296: Edwards vs Covington Props & Betting Trends

Bovada’s Edwards vs. Covington prop bet markets further help illustrate how the upcoming UFC 296 main event could unfold.

For example, the sportsbook is favoring a lengthy fight, listing that the welterweight title bout will go the distance at -210 odds. It isn’t too shocking to see that given that 10 of Edwards’ last 14 fights went the distance while seven of Covington’s most recent nine did the same.

Assuming that the fight does reach the round limit, Edwards is favored to win via points at +165 odds. He’s 11-2 all-time when his fights go the distance and has won eight consecutive fights that have featured some form of decision.

On the flip side, Covington’s most likely method of victory is also to win by points (+230). He has a 90% success rate when going the distance, however, he did lose via unanimous decision in his last championship opportunity.

If there's a finish in the fight, Edwards is most likely to win by KO/TKO at +285 odds. His most recent knockout victory came at UFC 278 against Usman, who is also the only man to have knocked out Covington.

And if you’re looking to pinpoint when a finish could happen, Edwards is favored to win via first-round KO/TKO (+1200). Of his seven career knockout wins, only three occurred in the opening round.

UFC 296: Edwards vs Covington Prediction & Best Bet

As great as Covington has been, I’m riding with Edwards to retain. The challenger has come up short in his last two championship matchups and also has two losses in his last four fights for the first time in his career.

Edwards hasn’t lost in eight years for a reason, so expect him to do what he can to extend that streak.

Keeping that in mind, I’m taking Edwards to win via KO/TKO or decision as the best bet. There’s a good chance that this fight will go the distance, but we’ve also seen that Covington is susceptible to being knocked out. After Edwards KO’d Usman in his last fight on American soil, I won’t be surprised if history repeats itself.