UFC 296: Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington odds, picks and predictions

In a 5-round welterweight championship bout in the co-main event, Leon Edwards and Colby Covington meet Saturday at UFC 296 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s around the UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ starting at 6:30 p.m. ET, with the prelims on ESPN2/ESPN+ starting at 8 p.m. ET, and the main card begins on Pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET.

Records: Edwards (21-3-0) | Covington (17-3-0)

Edwards is the current strap holder in the division, topping Kamaru Usman at UFC 278 for the title in Aug. 2022. He then defended his belt against the former champ Usman at UFC 286 with a majority-decision win in mid-March of this year. He has won 11 bouts with 1 no-contest since his last setback at the UFC level against Usman back in Dec. 2015 in a non-title fight.

Covington was previously the champ with a unanimous-decision win over Rafael Dos Anjos at UFC 225, but he lost the belt to Usman at UFC 245. He had another crack at the title in Nov. 2021, but also lost via unanimous decision to Usman at UFC 268. He bounced back last time out with a unanimous-decision win over Jorge Masvidal at UFC 272 in the main event in March 2022.

Covington makes his return to the octagon after a 21-month absence, and he has been reportedly dealing with a brain injury after being sucker punched by Masvidal in the streets of Miami — the UFC fighter was charged in the incident.

The southpaw Edwards has a 2-inch reach advantage, and he is more accurate at 59.59% on significant strikes, although Covington lands more per minute at a 4.10-to-2.80 advantage. Covington is also great on takedowns, posting a 4.05 takedown average and 45.89% takedown accuracy advantage. Edwards would do well to avoid this fight going to the mat.

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UFC 296: Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington odds

FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.

UFC Fight Night 296: Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington picks and predictions

There are too many unknowns with Covington (+140) as he returns from a lengthy hiatus. The safe and smart play is backing EDWARDS (-166) straight up, and the champ is not priced out of line.

We won’t know the specifics of why Covington was sidelined so long, what kind of shape he is in and if he’ll be able to hold up against a fighter the caliber of Edwards at this point.

Edwards isn’t a bad play just straight up, but if you want to get specific, playing EDWARDS BY POINTS (+145) is a good idea, too. I don’t see Covington getting knocked out here, and if anyone ends this fight inside the distance, it will be him getting a submission win. But I just can’t do that with so many unknowns about his health.

Over 4.5 Rounds (-210) and Yes: Will the fight go the distance? (-190) are both just a tad too expensive. I believe both props will cash, but that’s too much risk and not enough reward.

AVOID, and just focus on the 2-way line and method of victory.