Maple Leafs betting trends: Auston Matthews is back

In the last Toronto Maple Leafs betting trends blog, we focused on how Auston Matthews was starting to heat up.

Allow us a moment to pat ourselves on the back because that take has aged like a nice pair of blue jeans. The talented sniper is back to running roughshod over the rest of the NHL, and we’ll look closely at his recent play here.

To read up on how Matthews is rounding back into form and more, check out the latest Maple Leafs betting trends.

Maple Leafs betting trends

Matthews is fully back

Matthews has put the NHL on notice in March.

The sniper has spent the entire month reminding everyone how dangerous he is. He leads the NHL in shots (72), is tied for ninth in goals (8), and 11th in points (18).

Matthews’ strongest numbers are in his most recent outings, as he has four goals and nine points in his last five.

The performance that best encapsulates his return to elite form was last Saturday’s contest against the Carolina Hurricanes. Facing the team allowing the fewest shots per game (26.2) this season, he fired off 15 shots on goal, tying a team record. Two of those found the back of the net.

No Matthews market is off-limit for bettors. Wagering on him to score a goal, two-plus points, and usurp his shot total is all sensible at this point.

Goaltending struggles are leading to overs

Goaltending is proving to be a major question mark with the playoffs quickly approaching.

Neither Matt Murray nor Ilya Samsonov is doing much to impress these days, bringing many concerns (and overs) to the forefront.

Murray owns a dreadful .872 save percentage across his last eight appearances, allowing four goals in seven of those. Samsonov hasn’t been much better, posting a .891 save percentage in five games during March.

Toronto owns a very pedestrian .891 save percentage this month, ranking 17th in the league.

Naturally, the Maple Leafs’ poor goaltending is conducive to the over hitting. They’ve topped a 6.5-goal game total in eight of their last 10, making it a smart wager moving forward.

Fade Maple Leafs on the puck line

Betting Toronto on the puck line has consistently been one of the worst wagers to make this season.

The Maple Leafs have covered the puck line in 43.8% of their games, tying with the Pittsburgh Penguins for the fourth-worst mark. If you were to bet the team on this market in every game this season, you’d be down 11.9 units, according to Scores and Odds.

Looking at recent games, Toronto has covered the puck line in just one of its last five contests and two of its last eight.

Bettors are wise to fade the Maple Leafs on the puck line moving forward.

Keep betting on Calle Jarnkrok

Whether it’s picking him to score a goal or a point, we’re on board with backing Jarnkrok.

The main reason for that is his spot in the lineup. The Swedish forward is playing alongside Matthews and Mitch Marner on Toronto’s first line, and there’s no better place to generate offence than next to those two.

Jarnkrok has nine points in his last 12 outings and six in his last seven since receiving the promotion to the top line.

One thing that has become abundantly clear is that Jarnkrok possesses a lethal shot. Even Matthews has gone out of his way to compliment it, stating “his release is one of the prettiest releases I’ve seen in a long time,” per TSN's Mark Masters.

Playing with a talented playmaker like Marner and a superb finisher in Matthews will do wonders for Jarnkrok’s point production. If he continues this steady play, he’ll keep his spot on line one and become a reliable contributor for prop bettors.

Jarnkrok has already set career-highs in goals (18) and points (36) this season.

Decoding John Tavares

Tavares’ stat lines are puzzling, to say the least, but there are a couple of trends to note.

The first is his excellent point production. Tavares has 10 points over his last six contests, including four multi-point outings. Bettors should consider wagering on a two-plus point game from Toronto’s captain in an upcoming game.

Two markets you may want to consider fading, however, are his goal and shot props.

Despite potting two markers in his most recent game, that’s all he has to show for over his last eight. The reason for that is his low-shooting volume as he only has 20 shots during this stretch. That pace is much lower than the 3.47 shots per game he’s averaging this season.

And even that number requires a deeper dive as nine of his shots on goal bizarrely came in last Saturday’s matchup against the Hurricanes. That means he only has 11 shots in his other seven games during this stretch.

Tavares has failed to usurp a 3.5-shot line in six of his last eight, making that a market bettors should feel comfortable backing the under on.

In short, we’re greenlighting bets on Tavares’ points market, but are very bearish about his shot and goal props.