Max Scherzer makes Mets a top play

This is an article version of the CBS Sports HQ PM Newsletter, the ultimate daily sports gambling guide. .

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Yankees at Orioles, 7:05 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV

• Key Trend: The Orioles are 30-20 at home this season and 8-5 as home underdogs.
• The Pick: Orioles (+105)

When it comes to betting in this newsletter, my reasoning for picks runs the gamut. Sometimes I'm digging into the numbers and sparing you the minutiae. Here's the pick, here's a glimpse into some of the reasons why. Other times, I'm going off the vibes. This feels right, or something about this feels off.

But the foundation of nearly everything we do here is principle, and tonight, in Baltimore, a principle is being tested.

The New York Yankees are the New York Yankees. For much of their history, that means they're the preeminent MLB franchise. You know the names and the 27 World Series titles. However, in 2023, the New York Yankees are a last-place team. A last-place team with a winning record, but a last-place team nonetheless.

Then there are the Baltimore Orioles. A team that hasn't had much success in recent decades but is currently a first-place team eight games ahead of the Yankees in the standings. And they're a first-place team that's considered an underdog to a last-place team. At home.

Why? Brand recognition plays a role, but the bigger factor is Gerrit Cole is starting for the Yankees. However, as great as Cole is, there's something about the Yankees 15-6 record when he starts you should pay attention to. The Yankees are 12-1 when he starts at Yankee Stadium and 3-5 when he starts anywhere else.

This isn't because Cole pitches worse on the road; he doesn't. It's because the Yankees' offense is worse on the road. Yes, it turns out that leaving a Little League park can impact you. The Yankees offense has been disappointing this year due to injuries, and it's fared even worse on the road.

Meanwhile, Baltimore has one of the more efficient offenses in the league and has gone 30-20 at home this season, including 8-5 as a home underdog. I don't have the most faith in their starter tonight (Grayson Rodriguez), but I don't have much faith in the Yankees' offense, either.

💰The Picks

Nationals at Mets, 7:10 p.m | TV: MLB.TV

The Pick: Mets (-195) -- We're paying a heavy price here, so there's some trepidation, but it's the right move to make. It can be scary relying on this Mets team to do anything right, but while Max Scherzer has not been the Max Scherzer the Mets thought they'd signed, he's been much better at Citi Field than anywhere else. His ERA at home this season is 2.36, and his strikeout rate of 27.4% is much closer to his career norms.

Tonight Scherzer will face the Washington team he helped lead to a World Series victory, but it's a much different team now. The Nats don't offer much power, and home runs have always been the best way to get to Scherzer. 

Twins at Royals, 8:10 p.m | TV: MLB.TV

The Pick: Over 9.5 (-120) -- Tonight's weather forecast plays a pivotal role in this play. Kaufmann Stadium has never been hitter-friendly, but in the right conditions, it becomes one of the best places on the planet for hitters, and tonight looks to be one of those nights. The temperature will check in at about 100 degrees at first pitch, with the wind howling out to center between 12 and 15 mph. Anything hit in the air will carry a lot further than usual.

While tonight's starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Brady Singer, induce more groundball contact than flyball, both allow a lot of contact. Gray's strikeout rate is average for a starter, while Singer's is well below. Gray has walked 9.3% of hitters he's faced this season too, which only helps our chances. This is one of those games where you bet the over and consider a few alternate lines as well because there's a chance for 15 runs or more tonight.