MLB Picks for July 28: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

I can’t win a bet right now to save my life. It’s honestly a little concerning. Do I need to start burning some sage before I write this article? Google mentioned something about bathing in salt water. I guess I could try that, too. Does anyone have an extra four-leaf clover lying around?

As I continue to sort through my own mental decline, I’m going to go back to the betting basics tonight. Just moneyline wagers and game totals on Friday’s MLB slate. Let’s see if that accomplishes anything.

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles

While Aaron Judge (toe) is expected to be activated from the IL this afternoon, I’m still not overly impressed by the run scoring potential of this game. In the month of July, the Yankees own a 93 wRC+. For their part, the Orioles aren’t much better, sitting with a wRC+ of 99 in that same span. Baltimore has been winning almost every night, but it’s been doing it primarily thanks to excellent pitching — specifically a bullpen that sports the lowest FIP in all of baseball (3.55).

Then there’s Grayson Rodriguez. The right-hander was supposed to be an immediate ace in the Orioles’ staff, yet the rookie has struggled to a 6.91 ERA and 5.28 FIP at the MLB level in 2023. However, he’s looked better in his second go-around, with a 2.53 FIP in his first two outings since being recalled. It’s also probably worth pointing out that Rodriguez registered a 1.69 ERA in the 38.1 innings he threw at Triple-A following his demotion. The 23-year-old appears to be finding himself on the mound again.

On the other side, Gerrit Cole take the bump for New York. Cole has a 2.68 ERA and a 2.62 FIP since June 14. We don’t have to spend too much time talking up Cole.

Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros

The Rays are free-falling through the standings at the moment while the Astros welcomed back Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez from the IL on Wednesday. In that specific prism, one could make a case that these two organizations are headed in opposite directions. Still, for the purposes of one night at the end of July, I’ll be leaning with Tampa.

The main draw in this spot is Shane McClanahan. The All-Star owns a 2.89 ERA across 106.0 innings in 2023 and the Rays, as you would expect, are 14-5 when their ace starts. Still, don’t sleep on how this is also a fade of Cristian Javier. The 26-year-old was dynamite in 2022, including a magical string of performances in Houston’s run to the World Series. Yet this season has been very different. Javier’s strikeout rate has crumbled (22.2%) and his opponent contact rate has skyrocketed (76.7%). He’s been particularly awful in his last five trips to the mound, pitching to an ugly 9.70 ERA and 13.5% walk rate. Heck, the man walked six in his last outing against the Athletics. The Athletics?! He can not be trusted.

Well, the Mets can’t hit again. Across the last 14 days, New York’s 81 wRC+ is the fifth-lowest mark in all of baseball. That’s probably why they’ve apparently decided to pull the plug on 2023 and start selling off pieces to the highest bidder. However, it’s not like this is entirely a new issue — especially when it’s come to hitting LHPs like MacKenzie Gore. The Mets have a .300 wOBA for the season as a whole against southpaws. That’s worse than the likes of Pittsburgh, Detroit and Kansas City. Woof.

Same problem, different hand as it pertains to the Nationals’ bats, as Washington’s managed only a .303 wOBA and an 87 wRC+ versus RHPs. That’s a major issue on most nights, but the struggles should amplify with Max Scherzer starting for New York on Friday. Though the veteran certainly hasn’t been his best self so far in 2023, Scherzer has definitely enjoyed his opportunities to pitch at Citi Field. Scherzer possesses a 2.36 ERA at home compared to a 5.16 ERA on the road. Heck, opponents are slugging a mere .287 off the former All-Star when the Mets have last ups.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.