MLB Picks Today, Best Bets, Odds, Predictions for April 12

Not sure if you remember, but we took Drey Jameson as an underdog last season in his first start against the Padres at +150. His minor-league ERA was terrible, but it had nothing to do with his skill level. He played for the Reno Aces in a league where most stadiums play, like Coors Field. It’s almost impossible to be successful there from an ERA standpoint. You’ll often see lofty minor-league numbers for hitters and horrifying numbers for pitchers.

Drey Jameson is a freak athlete. I read a story that he beat Corbin Carroll in a race. That doesn’t matter, but it goes to show the talent level in that smaller frame.

Also, something strange with Jameson is developing. He didn’t allow a run at home in 12.1 innings last season, and he threw 2.1 innings of scoreless ball against the Dodgers in his only home appearance this season. Could he be the next Cal Quantrill?

Janson Junk was one of the pieces included in the Hunter Renfroe trade. He only threw 8.1 innings last season, putting up a 6.48 ERA in 8.1 innings. He threw five shutout against the Royals, then allowed six earned against the A’s. Hard to really project what he’ll look like today, but Jameson is undoubtedly the better prospect with better stuff. He did struggle in spring training but then threw well in his short stint in triple-A.

I’m spacing out these bets because there is an advantage to both the full game and the first five. Not only do I prefer Jameson to Junk, but the Brewers bullpen has regression looming. From my experience, a bullpen with a 1.00 ERA, but a 4.59 SIERA, which ranks 25th in baseball, normally doesn’t last long. Arizona is the opposite, rocking a 4.81 bullpen ERA with a 4.01 SIERA. Both units are rested today, so we should see each side’s best arms following the starting pitchers.

After yesterday’s debacle, some may be worried about taking both sides of the same game. I stand behind my plays, and yesterday’s picks have nothing to do with this. When I see the value, I pounce. I see it on both sides, so I’m playing both sides. I can’t let yesterday’s picks affect today’s picks.