NFL Best Bets: Top Prop Bet Predictions for Week 6 on DraftKings Sportsbook

Week 6 is upon us, and after a 3-3 record in Week 5, let’s hope that this week can be greener than ever before as we hunt winners on DraftKings Sportsbook. This week, the Chiefs got things rolling with a comfortable win over the lowly Broncos. We have 14 games to pick from this weekend, so let’s get things started with my favorite prop bets for this week’s action.

OVER Picks

WR DJ Moore Over 59.5 Rec Yds (-120)

This number caught my attention right away after the last two weeks Moore and the Bears have had offensively. He has gone over this total in three of his five games in 2023, and over the last two weeks, he has had 19 targets for 16 catches, 361 receiving yards and four touchdowns. With this kind of recent productivity, it seems the Bears may have found something on offense that can work. To make matters even better, the Vikings are a great matchup for Moore, as they are the 22nd-best team in the league against the pass, giving up 240 pass yards per game. I think the over hits comfortably for Moore.

QB Kirk Cousins Over 1.5 Pass TD’s (-115)

Cousins was dealt a great blow this week, with star receiver Justin Jefferson headed to the IR. With that said, I still think that Cousins and the Vikings can generate some offense with their other weapons. Cousins leads the league in touchdown passes with 13 and has thrown at least two in all five of the Vikings games in 2023. Look for Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson to be two of his favorite targets in the red zone. The Bears have been dreadful against the pass in 2023, currently #31 in the league in pass yards given up.

RB D’Andre Swift Over 66.5 Rush Yds (-115)

Swift has quitely had a great season so far in 2023, currently sitting fourth in the league in rush yards despite only getting one rushing attempt in Week 1. In his four games since, he has gone over this total three times and is averaging 107.75 rush yards per game. On the season, he is averaging 5.7 yards per carry, which is fourth best in the league among qualified running backs. This matchup is a good one for Swift, as the Jets’ defense has taken a step back against the run in 2023. They are currently 29th in the league against the run, giving up 146.2 rush yards per game. This could be a big problem in Week 6 for New York against Swift and his talented offensive line.

UNDER Picks

QB Jimmy Garoppolo Under 235.5 Pass Yds (-125)

Garoppolo missed one game this year due to a concussion, but he has only gone over this total once in the other four he’s played in. This week, he is matched up against the Patriots, who are #7 in the league against the pass, only letting up 190.4 pass yards per game. I think Jimmy G could struggle this week, as the Patriots usually try to take away your best weapon, which in this case is Davante Adams. If Adams struggles to see the ball come his way, I think Garoppolo will struggle to get close to this total. After two embarrassing losses in a row, I think the Patriots will be ready to prove themselves in Week 6.

RB Jonathan Taylor Under 45.5 Rush Yds (-115)

This one is tricky because we have no idea which running back will get more touches in Week 6 as the Colts continue to ramp up Taylor after missing the first four weeks. In his first return to action last Sunday, Taylor rushed six times, while Zack Moss received the major workload with 23 carries. Taylor will surely get more carries this week, but the question is, how many? It will be difficult for the Colts staff to take the ball out of Zack Moss’s hands, as he is third in the NFL in rushing, even after missing Week 1 with an injury. To make matters worse for Taylor, the Jaguars are the fifth-best team against the run so far, only giving up 81.6 rush yards per game. I think Moss will continue to see the bulk of the carries this week, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Moss hits his over and Taylor goes under his total.

TE Irv Smith Jr. Under 18.5 Rec Yds (-110)

This number is a little staggering to me, as Smith Jr. only has 27 yards this season. He played the first two weeks and had five catches for 27 yards. He then missed Week 3 and 4 with injury and returned in Week 5 to see 0 targets. Smith Jr. doesn’t seem to have a role in this offense, and until he can prove otherwise, I think the under is a solid play. He has the sixth most targets on the team, another indication that the ball hasn’t been coming his way this year. In fact, the four Bengals tight ends on the roster have combined for only 98 receiving yards in five weeks.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.