NFL Best Bets: Top Prop Bet Predictions for Week 4 on DraftKings Sportsbook

It’s been a fruitful start to the NFL season, with each of the first three weeks resulting in a positive record. This week, I hope to continue the streak with some of my favorite prop bets for this 15-game slate over the weekend. The Lions got Week 4 started with a demolition of Jordan Love and the Packers, and now we look forward to the hopefully profitable weekend to come on DraftKings Sportsbook.

OVER Picks

RB Christian McCaffrey Over 83.5 Rush Yds (-115)

McCaffrey has been the best running back in the league so far in 2023, leading the NFL in rush yards and coming in at third in rushing attempts. He has hit over 84 yards in each of his first three games, averaging 117.6 rush yards per game in 2023. He’s gotten at least 18 carries in every game this year, and if that trend continues in Week 4, I think the over hits with ease here. Furthermore, he is going up against the Cardinals’ defense, who are 26th against the run so far in 2023, as they’ve given up 134.7 rush yards per game.

RB D’Andre Swift Over 65.5 Rush Yds (-115)

In his first game as a Philadelphia Eagle, Swift only carried the ball once for three yards. In the two games following, it has been a coming-out party for Swift and the Eagles offensive line. In the last two games, Swift has carried the ball an insane 44 times, accounting for 305 rush yards and almost 7 yards per carry. The production he’s produced in the last two weeks is good enough to put him second in the league in rush yards despite coming in at 12th in total rushing attempts. Kenneth Gainwell has been a pain in the side of Swift’s production, with Gainwell getting 14 rush attempts in the two games he’s played. Even so, I think Swift’s production has earned him the starting running back spot, and I’d be shocked if he doesn’t lead the team in rush attempts on Sunday. The Eagles face off against the Commanders, who are 22nd against the run in 2023, giving up 128.7 rush yards per game.

WR Tutu Atwell Over 50.5 Rec Yds (-130)

Tutu Atwell is having a breakout year so far, currently sitting with the 15th most receiving yards in 2023. He has gone over this total in two of his first three games, averaging 82 receiving yards per game so far. Last week he fell short of this total, with 50 yards exactly. Atwell has been seeing the ball come his way enough for me to feel confident about this number, as he’s gotten at least eight targets in every game so far. Recent reports suggest WR Cooper Kupp could be available for Week 5, so that gives us one more week where Atwell should be a primary focus on the offense. The Rams face off against the Colts, who have not been good against the pass, sitting 23rd in the league in that category.

UNDER Picks

QB Zach Wilson Under 174.5 Passing Yds (-115)

Wilson’s total has been set at 180.5 the last two weeks, and finally, it has been brought down just a little to 174.5. Even so, I will still be taking the under again until Wilson can prove he is a competent quarterback. He has failed to reach this total in each of the first three games, and with a little bit of drama starting in New York’s locker room, I think Sunday could be even worse for Wilson and the Jets. The Jets haven’t played on Sunday Night Football in over 10 years, and with such a big stage, I think Wilson ultimately crumbles and folds to the pressure. The Chiefs’ defense has also been sneaky good against the pass, giving up the 6th least pass yards per game at 178.

QB Bryce Young Under 216.5 Passing Yds (-115)

This number for Young seems way too high, and the only logical reason for it is that the Vikings rank 25th against the pass, in large part due to Justin Herbert’s 405-yard performance last Sunday. Young missed last week’s game due to an ankle injury but will be back in the fold on Sunday against Minnesota. In his first two career starts, he looked unimpressive, going well below this number on both occasions. Week 1, he threw for only 146 yards, and Week 2 was a similar story with 153 passing yards. Although it’s a fairly small sample size, he has only averaged 149.5 yards per game this year and has a 66.6 QB rating. It’s certainly possible he figures it out in Week 4 at home against a below-par passing defense, but I will hold out and take the under until he proves he can do it on this level.

RB Rachaad White Under 51.5 Rush Yds (-125)

Tampa Bay has struggled to establish a running game so far in 2023, with their offense currently 26th in rush yards per game. A big part of that has been the inefficiency of Rachaad White, who is clearly the lead back but is only averaging 3.1 yards per carry. He has gone under this total in two out of three games so far this year, the exception being the Chicago Bears. This week, he lines up against a much better rush defense in the New Orleans Saints. The Saints are 10th against the run right now, giving up 99.7 rush yards per game. White has been given at least 14 carries each week, but if he struggles to do anything with those carries again, I expect the under to hit here. To highlight how inefficient he’s been with his workload so far, White is 43rd out of 51 applicable running backs in rush yards per carry.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.