NFL Player Props Divisional Round: Predictions, Picks & Odds for Saturday

We're expecting an emphasis on the ground game for two weather-marred contests on Saturday as we make our Divisional Round NFL player props using the best NFL odds from our leading NFL prop betting sites.

After a strong finish to the regular season, we hit a snag over Wild Card Weekend with a 2-4 record (-2.28 units) on our NFL player props. Two of those losses came by a combined two yards, but those are the breaks in the postseason, when markets are as sharp as ever.

However, we profited in three of the previous four weeks on our NFL player prop picks, and I like our chances of returning to form during the Divisional Round.

The action begins Saturday when the Baltimore Ravens host the Houston Texans after nearly three weeks off for the majority of their starters. As we explored in my feature on NFL Divisional Round rest vs. rust, this could be a potential trap game for the Ravens, but we expect them to lean on a reliable stalwart in less-than-stellar conditions.

The San Francisco 49ers find themselves in a comparable situation, with heavy rain and swirling winds expected as they host the Green Bay Packers on Saturday night. This weather forecast could force those teams to lean on the run, which spells value for the Under on one of those QBs.

Sunday brings even more compelling matchups with the Buccaneers vs. Lions and Chiefs vs. Bills. I previewed both games earlier this week, and I'll update this column with my favorite prop picks for those contests over the weekend.

In addition to our NFL predictions for the Divisional Round and Super Bowl picks and predictions, let's dive in with our best NFL player props for the Divisional Round (odds via ourbest NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL player props for the Divisional Round

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NFL player props for the Divisional Round: Saturday

Gus Edwards Over 13.5 rushing attempts (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is a fascinating game to handicap given the weather conditions in Baltimore, where winds are expected to reach 25 mph with gusts approaching 35 mph amid sub-freezing temperatures. As we've seen before, that combination of wind and frigid conditions typically means a long day for quarterbacks.

It also presents an opportunity for the Ravens to exert their will offensively, and Edwards is well-suited for the workhorse role. The veteran back has been used more sparingly in recent weeks amid blowouts and scheduled rest. But he's cleared this total six times in 2023-24, including all three games with at least 33 snaps.

He should receive that on Saturday, especially with Baltimore's offense unlikely to come out firing through the air after nearly three weeks off from legitimate game action. Even with the layoff, I'm expecting the Ravens to win this game, which would spell a favorable game script for this bet to cash.

The Texans' run defense has been impressive down the stretch, which is why I'm less bullish on Edwards' yardage prop (51.5 via FanDuel), though I wouldn't balk if you wanted to bet the Over. But this is my preferred way to bet on what I expect to be a busy day for Edwards and the Ravens' rushing offense.

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Brock Purdy Under 30.5 pass attempts (-108 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This prop total has been on the move, dealing as high as 31.5 before dropping as low as 29.5 at FanDuel as of Friday. Even if you missed the high mark on this prop total, there's still tremendous value at this number for so many reasons.

For one, Purdy simply hasn't been a high-volume passer in 2023-24. The seventh-round pick has thrown it 31-plus times in just three of his 16 starts this season, including only once since late October. The 49ers have instead relied on top back Christian McCaffrey as the fulcrum of their star-studded offense.

I don't expect that to change Saturday against the Packers, who feature one of the league's worst run defenses. Neither do oddsmakers, who have priced McCaffrey as a heavy favorite to notch at least 18 carries. When CMC enjoys that type of workload, Purdy is averaging just 27 attempts while clearing this total once in eight such contests.

And then there's the weather. As our Mike Spector noted in his Brock Purdy NFL player props, the 49ers QB produced one of the worst games of his career during a rain-soaked Week 6 loss to the Cleveland Browns. He finished with a season-low 4.6 yards per attempt while throwing just 27 times.

Sunday's game should feature heavy rain with wind gusts up to 20 mph. Head coach Kyle Shanahan would surely prefer not to rely on his second-year passer in a do-or-die spot in that type of environment. It doesn't help that Purdy's hand size (9.25 inches) is in the bottom 25th percentile, which absolutely makes a difference in tough conditions.

As a bonus, Under 30.5 is dealing at -120 or worse across all of our best sports betting sites except BetRivers, where we're scoring a relatively strong -108 price. This would be a five-star play at the better number earlier this week, but it remains one of my favorite wagers heading into the Divisional Round.

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