NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 5

sportsbookreview.com

05 October 2023

Notmuch has gone right so far for the Cincinnati Bengals, whose 1-3 start has themin last place in the AFC North. Read why we’re fading the Bengals as one of ourthree NFL upset picks for Week 5 based on the best NFL odds.

With all due respect to the Vikings,Broncos, Giants, and Bears, no team in the NFL is off to a more disappointingstart than the Cincinnati Bengals. Despite entering the season among the SuperBowl favorites, Joe Burrow and the Bengals have dropped three of their firstfour games, managing just three points in two of those losses.

We see Cincy’s early-season woes continuing when they visit an ArizonaCardinals team that is better than many expected. Here are our best NFL upsetpicks for Week 5 (odds via ourbest NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL upset picks: Week 5

Jacksonville Jaguars (+210 via bet365) vs. Buffalo Bills ⭐⭐⭐

Pittsburgh Steelers (+170 via Caesars) vs. Baltimore Ravens ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Arizona Cardinals (+142 via FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Bengals ⭐⭐⭐

Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook

NFL upset predictions

Jacksonville Jaguars moneyline vs. Buffalo Bills (+210 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Buffalo is the toast of the leaguefollowing last week’s 48-20 beatdown of the Dolphins, the Bills’ third straightvictory by four touchdowns or more. But this week’s contest with the Jags inLondon could be a tricky spot for Buffalo, playing overseas following astatement win and potentially without two starters in its secondary.

Jacksonville is no stranger tointernational contests, not only playing in Europe for a league-high 11th timebut also for the second straight week. Not having to travel should be a hugeadvantage for the Jaguars as they look to build on Sunday’s 23-7 victory overthe Falcons, the third time in four games Jacksonville has held an opponent to21 points or fewer. One of those games was against PatrickMahomes and the Chiefs, a game in which the Jags had a chance to tie the scorein the final minutes.

Jacksonville stunned the Bills as two-touchdownunderdogs just two years ago. Stepping in front of Josh Allen and this hotBills attack requires a leap of faith, but at this fat price, we’ll take ashot.

Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline vs. Baltimore Ravens (+170 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Even after 16 seasons on the Steelers’sideline, Mike Tomlin knows how to get his team’s attention. Expect a strongresponse from Pittsburgh after Tomlin questioned the Steelers’ level ofphysicality and toughness in last week’s 30-6 loss at Houston.

Tomlin promisedsignificant changes going forward, including padded practices this week. Theteam could also start Mitch Trubisky in favor of the struggling Kenny Pickettat quarterback, especially with Pickett dealing with a bone bruise in his leg.

Baltimore took advantage of DeshaunWatson’s absence last week to easily handle the Browns 28-3, the Ravens’ secondroad win over an AFC North rival in three weeks. However, the Ravens are stilldealing with multiple injuries on both sides of the ball, and they’ve won justsix of their last 11 games as a road favorite.

Catching more than a field goal with aSteelers team that is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 as a home underdog is a saferway to play a game that could come down to the final possession, but the +175return on the moneyline is a risk worth taking. In those last 10 games as a homedog, the Steelers have pulled off the outright upset six times.

Arizona Cardinals moneyline vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+142 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

At the start of the season, nobody wouldhave expected Cincinnati to be just a field-goal favorite at Arizona in thisWeek 5 matchup. The Bengals entered the campaign as one of the Super Bowlfavorites in the AFC, while the Cards were being accused of tanking afterjettisoning some of their top talent during the offseason.

However, the line movement at the best sports betting sites for this game —Cincy was an 8.5-point favorite on the lookahead line, re-opened as 4.5-pointchalk and quickly plummeted down to -3 — tells us everything we need to know about the current realities of theseteams. The Bengals are 1-3 and have been held to a field goal in two of theirfirst four games as Joe Burrow is clearly hindered by his calf injury. Arizona was a last-second drop away from covering last week for the fourth timein as many games.

Much of the value on the Cardinals isalready gone, which is why we’ll limit this to a 3-star play, but there’s stillenough meat on the bone to back Arizona to add to the Bengals’ early-seasonwoes.

NFLupset picks made 10/04/2023 at 9:45 a.m. ET.