NFL Week 1 Betting Trends: Bet on Underdogs In Division Games
The 2023 NFL season will kick off on Thursday Night Football with a battle between the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
Bettors will have a chance to scratch their gambling itch before the rest of the NFL teams open their regular season schedules on Sunday and Monday.
But, before you place your bets, there is one key stat that could pay dividends in a big way this week.
John Ewing, a data analyst at BetMGM, revealed that betting on Week 1 underdogs in division games has been profitable over the past decade. Underdogs have gone 35-35-2 on the moneyline, according to BetLabs. Despite the nearly even record, a $100 bettor would have profited a healthy +22.66 units or $2,266 on those selections.
Luckily, NFL fans will have a host of division games to choose from in Week 1, including a few games that look ripe for an upset.
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Below, we’ll go over the Week 1 underdogs playing division games this week.
- Browns (+115)
- Colts (+185)
- Panthers (+150)
- Packers (+100)
- Rams (+200)
- Raiders (+155)
- Giants (+145)
- Jets (+115)
Who Are The Best Underdogs To Target In Division Games?
There are eight divisional games on the NFL Week 1 schedule, including a Monday Night Football matchup between the Buffalo Bills and new-look New York Jets.
Jordan Love will also make his debut as the Green Bay Packers starting quarterback on the road in Soldier Field against the Chicago Bears.
So, which games should football bettors look to target?
Best Value Bet: L.A. Rams (+200)
Bettors looking for the best value might want to target the Los Angeles Rams, who will open the season on the road in Seattle against the Seahawks. The Rams will welcome back a healthy Matthew Stafford to a team that is just two years removed from a Super Bowl victory. While the roster has undergone a significant overhaul, Stafford’s presence under center should give the Rams a boost. With Seattle favored by 5.5 points, there should be considerable value on the Rams to steal a Week 1 win on the road.
Best Underdog Pick: NY Jets (+115)
The Jets will open the regular season at home against the Buffalo Bills, who are favored to win the AFC East division.
It’s hard not to look at the Jets on paper and not see a potential Super Bowl contender.
New York had one of the league’s best defenses in 2022 and the addition of Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers should be enough to help the Jets get over the hump. The Jets also added several playmakers on offense, including Dalvin Cook and Rodgers’ longtime targets Randall Cobb and Allan Lazard.
A statement win at home versus the Bills in Week 1 would put the rest of the NFL on notice.
Home Favorites Have Been Profitable Week 1 Picks
There are some other notable trends to look for in the first week of the NFL season.
Home favorites have generally been a safe play for over 20 years. Since 2000, home favorites have won on the moneyline 67 percent of the time (155-76).
However, teams favored by four points or fewer at home in Week 1 are just 6-7 since 2020.
Three teams in Week 1 would fall under that umbrella.
- Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
- Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (-1)
- Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-3.5)
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