NFL Week 4 Odds: Best Spot Bets, Letdown Plays and Look-Ahead Lines

Week 4 of the NFL season brings unique situational angles to consider when making your NFL picks and predictions. The Rams play back-to-back road games on a short week while the Bills have London calling ahead of their showdown with the Dolphins.

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Week 4 is reflection time for teams. With three games under their belts, organizations are starting to realize what they’re made of... and testing that is the schedule.

As September comes to a close and the calendar flips to October, there are more situational angles influencing the outcome of games.

I crawl through the NFL Week 4 odds looking for those angles — AKA spot bets — highlighting the best letdown, look-ahead, and schedule spots to consider before placing your NFL picks.

Letdown Spot: Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5)

The Los Angeles Chargers finally get to breathe after putting one in the win column in Week 3, beating the Vikings in a foot-shooting contest in which the Vikes ran out of toes first.

But did the Bolts really win that game, or did Minnesota just lose it? Take a look at that last-second goal-line play call from the Vikings and get back to me.

Whatever the case, Los Angeles has tamed the flames under coach Brandon Staley’s office chair for now, but the Chargers must put that wild and wacky win behind them. They’re back home in Week 4, feeling like a road team with the Black Hole taking over SoFi Stadium.

Not only do the Chargers run the risk of a letdown spot after that dizzying victory but they could also get caught looking ahead to a week away from the football field, with a bye slated for Week 5. It's a much-needed pause for this franchise to tighten the bolts... on... the Bolts.

Add in the lack of home-field edge against the Las Vegas Raiders and a bad injury to WR Mike Williams, and this current spread is trending toward the Bermuda Triangle of NFL odds. Los Angeles is a 4.5-point home fave and could close as a dreaded 4-point favorite: a role that has covered in just 32% of games since 2018.

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Look-Ahead Spot: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)

A 70-point volcanic eruption is going to draw attention. So, it’s strange to think the Buffalo Bills would be thinking about anything other than the Miami Dolphins in Week 4.

But beyond this exciting AFC East showdown — and buzzing behind the scenes of Sunday's game with Miami — is an international trip to London to play the\ Jaguars in Week 5.

Head coach Sean McDermott will do his very best to keep his guys focused on the Fins, but logistics alone demand the participation of players, including their own off-field plans.

I’m not saying this UK trip will serve as a major distraction, but it’s not ideal considering the magnitude of this Miami matchup.

If we look at the post-COVID international series the past two seasons, NFL teams aren’t a great bet the week before they jump the pond, going just 3-10-1 ATS (6-8 SU). That includes both the Falcons and Jaguars losing outright and against the spread in Week 3 (they play in London in Week 4).

Schedule Spot: Los Angeles Rams (+1) at Indianapolis Colts 

As of this writing, the Los Angeles Rams still have to visit the Bengals on Monday Night Football in Week 3.

Regardless of the outcome of that game, Los Angeles faces a rough schedule spot in Week 4, playing its second straight road game on a short week (and its third away game in four weeks to start the season).

Folding into that tight turnaround are layers of both letdown and look-ahead, coming off a primetime battle with the Bengals and looking past the Indianapolis Colts and to a home date with the mighty Eagles in Week 5.

The Colts could also suffer their own letdown after an upset over the Ravens in Week 3. Everyone will be keeping an eye on the condition of rookie QB Anthony Richardson and center Ryan Kelly, as well as the team’s plans for RB Jonathan Taylor, who can officially come off the PUP list in Week 4 after his trade demands failed to force a move.

As it stands on Monday morning, Los Angeles is bouncing between -1 and +1 at the books hanging a Week 4 spread. The look-ahead line set in the summer was a pick’em, so barring any major injuries to L.A. on Monday, this spread range should stick.