NHL: Lightning vs. Flyers odds, pick, prediction
It took half the season, but it seems like the Tampa Bay Lightning have found some rhythm. After a malaise through much of November and December, the Lightning have won five of their last six and are 7-3-0 in their last 10. Tampa Bay currently occupies the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.
The Bolts will look to make it six of seven with a win in Philadelphia on Tuesday night.
Bookmakers essentially view this game as a coin flip with the Flyers priced as a nominal -115 favorite at home. On the surface those odds make sense, but if you look a little deeper it does seem like one team is catching a whiff of disrespect from the betting market.
While Tampa Bay has an elite power play, more skill than the Flyers and arguably the MVP of the first half in Nikita Kucherov in its ranks, the Flyers boast the better statistical profile at 5-on-5. Philadelphia ranks 11th in expected goals rate, 10th in high-danger scoring chance rate and 17th in goal difference at 5-on-5. The Flyers may not dominate teams at even strength, but they’re very rarely played off the ice, either. It’s essential that Philadelphia is competitive at 5-on-5 on a nightly basis since its power play has been terrible all season and because the roster doesn’t have the game-breaking talent needed to steal wins when they’re outplayed at even strength.
The Lightning are a different story. Their statistical profile at 5-on-5 is closer to below-average than good, but wit Kucherov and the league’s best power play, the Bolts can afford to be less than stellar at even strength and still win games. It doesn’t hurt to have an all-world goaltender, either.
The Lightning are always dangerous and the Flyers will likely need to work a lot harder to get scoring chances than their opponents on Tuesday, but this price seems to underestimate Philadelphia’s chances. The Flyers have the better record, the better statistical profile and are at home.
The Bet: Flyers -115 (DraftKings)
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